Posted on June 28, 2011

The White Working Class: The Group That Will Likely Decide Obama’s Fate

Ruy Teixeira, The New Republic, June 20, 2011

Each election cycle there occurs a tired ritual, in which pundits and reporters rediscover that yes, indeed, there are still a lot of white working class voters in America, and they represent a serious vulnerability for the Democrats. But just this once, let’s skip the period where everyone initially ignores this group and cut straight to the chase: There will be a lot of white working class voters showing up at the polls next November, and the degree to which they support (or abandon) President Obama could very well make or break his reelection.

In 2008, during his otherwise-solid election victory, Obama lost the white working class vote by 18 points. In 2010, however, things got much worse: Congressional Democrats’ experienced a catastrophic 30 point deficit among the same group. While the first number is a figure Obama could live with repeating, the second could very well prove fatal.

Indeed, if Republicans can replicate that 30 point deficit in 2012–a margin which seems increasingly possible given the recent bad news about the economy–Obama will have little to no room for error among his other constituencies. For example, even if, as expected, the share of minority voters increases from 26 to around 28 percent in the next election and Obama receives the typical 75 percent of that vote, while the share of white working class voters declines by another 3 percentage points, a 30 point hole in Obama’s white working class support would mean that the overall support he needs to win the election was teetering right on the knife’s edge. In such a scenario, Obama would have to hold essentially all of his white college graduate support from 2008 (47 percent, a historic high for Democrats) to be assured of victory.


To be sure, the good news for Obama is that the level of support he needs from this group of voters is not terribly high. While a 30 point deficit might sink him, he could survive pretty easily on a 23 point deficit, John Kerry’s margin in 2004. That Obama would likely win with this very large deficit, while Kerry lost, indicates just how much the demographics of the country have changed in the 8 years since Kerry’s defeat. But while the bar for Obama may be lower, he still needs to clear it, and at the moment, that’s looking like a real challenge.

15 responses to “The White Working Class: The Group That Will Likely Decide Obama’s Fate”

  1. Anonymous says:

    The 2012 election may be the point where the chaos begins. Many of us here predicted the attacks on whites that Obama’s election and reign would produce, but the 2012 election is going to be a dangerous time. I imagine a loss for Obama would trigger massive riots. If it is close and needs a recount, an all out race-war is likely. If he wins, there will still be anti-white violence because of the lack of a unanimous vote. Get ready, folks.

  2. Anonymous says:

    I am ashamed to say it, but we are still too stupid, and a great many Whites even desire to be deceived. With republicans and democrats racing each other to see who can be the biggest anti-White, what option is open for Whites? The democrats set the pace, the republicans offer weak resistance and then copy the democrats 20-30 years later.

  3. Question Diversity says:

    The moral of this story is that one working class native born white American has more leverage over who does and does not get to be President than a handful of people who belong to fashionable Democrat Party constituencies. The 12% differential in the white working class between 2008 and 2010 makes a really big difference. White working class voters were the crucial margin to Obama’s win in 2008, and they’ll be crucial again in 2012.

    Rhetorical question — All other things being equal, if 12% of the Hispanic vote changes, do you think it really makes a big difference in the final vote totals?

  4. Anonymous says:

    Call me crazy, but I can’t believe any white working class voters voted for him in the first place.

    I was astonished that “O” won. A real wake up call for me.

  5. Rob says:

    I am a white working class male and for the life of me I can’t figure out why white working class people support the Democrats Talk about voting against your best interests.

  6. Anonymous says:

    That Obama would likely win with this very large deficit, while Kerry lost, indicates just how much the demographics of the country have changed in the 8 years since Kerry’s defeat.

    Notice how these writers usually mention the “changing demographics” very matter-of-factly without questioning the morality of manipulating the country’s demographics in a way that benefits one party over the other. That’s called “treason” in my book.

  7. Anonymous says:

    Too little, too late. The white working class and radical feminists were the suckers in the 1960’s who started this disaster. They’re now trying to force toothpaste back in the tube, impossible. The collapse of unionized labor is sweet karma for their treason. They deserve it, and more.

    The lawful, educated class has the moral high ground, but is impotent. It always has been this way. Nothing ever happens unless the working class directs its anger in the right direction, with its usual mob mentality.

    There’s no intellectual shortage of paleoconservative champions. The idiocy of the common crowd is the problem.

  8. John Engelman says:

    The white working class has gained and lost from the Republican ascendancy that began with the election of Ronald Reagan in 1980.

    It has gained a safer country. The crime rate per 100,000 inhabitants has declined from 5,950.0 in 1980 to 3,465.5 in 2009.

    This has not happened because of the social reform and social welfare spending that liberals falsely claimed during the 1960s would reduce crime. From 1960 to 1969 the crime rate per 100,000 inhabitants rose from 1,887.2 to 3,680.0. The decline in crime has happened because since 1980 the prison population has tripled.

    Unfortunately, the white working class has lost economically. Since 1980 real after tax income for eighty percent of the American population has declined, although for the richest one percent it has increased dramatically.

    Moreover, from the administrations of Lyndon Johnson to George W. Bush there has always been more job creation per year under Democratic presidents than under Republican presidents.

    Despite the persistence of high unemployment, the economy was losing jobs when George W. Bush left office. Now it is gaining jobs.

    Republican economic policies always make the rich richer. If, as I suspect, sustained economic growth is no longer possible in America, this can only be achieved by continuing to make the white working class poorer.

    All of these factors should be considered by white working class Americans when deciding who to vote for in 2012.

  9. patthemick says:

    I think even with dead people voting Obama is done. If the loss is due to wakened white people so much the better. You can expect riots and protests from the minorities over this result so be ready to hunker down and watch the festivities.

    I also expect criminal charges to be brought up against previous administration policies but go nowhere.

  10. Luke says:

    A somber message to these brainless white Obama voters from 2008:

    This man has openly, arrogantly, and brazenly demonstrated his hatred and hostility for the White European descendants of the 100 percent White Founding Fathers of this European founded and created nation – in a whole litany of different areas and through every action this man has taken since assuming office.

    Need a few reminders? Obama Care, for one. A clearly racial oriented, Marxist socialist extortion scheme designed to redistribute the rapidly dwindling dollars of the beleaguered, productive white middle class into programs that are meant to benefit the less productive, less ambitious, less self-disciplined, and largely dysfunctional minority demographic groups. And, if this socialist effort to fleece the white middle class isn’t overturned – it is only the beginning of what this Marxist socialist and his cabal of fellow socialists will do in a second term in order to deprive the white middle class of even more of their hard-earned income.

    Have we all read the news that has discussed how the party of Obama is eyeing our 401k

    and IRA’s and trying to figure out some way to confiscate them, since their constituents don’t have the self-discipline to save for THEIR retirements, so the Democrats want to steal our savings and redistribute those funds to a government controlled fund, and make sure our money then gets spread around to needy minorities? Prediction: It will be a feeding frenzy that will set new world records, if this guy gets reelected.

    Remember Karl Marx’s words? “From each, according to his ability, To each, according to his needs.”? Pure Communism – coming from a radical Communist sitting in our White House; is this not obvious? Did the brainless white Obama voters in 2008 who voted for this guy to prove to themselves that they weren’t ‘racists’ even bother to do their homework on this guy? If they had, they would have known that he had Communist sympathies and hard core Marxist leanings – because those facts were NOT difficult to uncover.

    And, how about the border? This anti-white Marxist immediately sought to overturn the will of the voters of Arizona – who have every legitimate and justified right to pass whatever laws they desire – to try to protect their state from an invasion and takeover by hordes of illegal aliens from Mexico or from any other foreign nation. Arizona sees what has happened to California – totally bankrupted, on verge of total economic and financial collapse, not to mention being transformed into a cauldron of simmering ethnic tension which threatens to destroy the social cohesion of the entire state – and which will most certainly spread across the rest of the Southwest, if not across the whole nation. Obama cares not a whit about the preservation of the once highly successful, highly prosperous White, Western European civilization, however. Quite the opposite, in fact. He is a card carrying Cultural Marxist, which means he is vehemently anti-white, anti-Western, and he is committed to the #1 Prime Objective of all Cultural Marxists:

    The complete and total destruction and eradication of White Western Civilization, and the accompanying genocide of the very people who are the architects of Western Civilization.

    And, who might those people be?

    White European men and women.

    To summarize: Cultural Marxism is simply a softer, less militaristic variant of the same kind of anti-White, anti-Western Communism – which this nation fought during the Cold War since the end of WW2. This is where ‘Political Correctness’ originated, people. And, P.C. is being used as a weapon by the Cultural Marxist Communists inside our nation to stifle debate, to control dissent, to guilt-trip and brainwash white people, and to intimidate White Western European people into being too terrifed of the P.C. Thought Commissars to speak out against what is very clearly an attempt to literally destroy Western Civilization and to engineer the genocide of the European people who created it, in order to make darned sure it stays dead.

    Do we want to wind up like the former Rhodesia, now Zimbabwe? That is a thumbnail blueprint for what life looks like after White Western civilization is destroyed.

    Well, it’s time to fight back. Go on the OFFENSE. And, our objective must be to turn the tables on these Communist Cultural Marxist enemies who are inside our gates and drive these nation wreckers into the graveyard of history. In essence, its time to TAKE OUR COUNTRY BACK and reclaim our birthright.

    Oh, and here is a final word of caution: All of these Cultural Marxists are not Democrats. The current neo-conned GOP is infested from top to bottom with people who are card carrying Cultural Marxist enemies of White European people and of Western Civilization, as well. Learn to recognize who these anti-white politicians are who have ‘Rs’ next to their names, but who are really RINOs. Cultural Marxism is a disease that has also infected most of our major Churches – and the very Church leaders who should be fighting this Cultural Communism are now promoting it from the pulpits. Solution: Purge these Cultural Marxists from our churches and political arenas and replace them with pro-White, pro-Western, America-First people who promote the preservation of White, Western Civilization – instead of it’s destruction.

    The stakes could not be higher. Its time to circle our White Wagons, people.

  11. Duran Dahl says:

    I am interpreting the up-tick in black flash-mob violence as a precursor to “Obama ’12,” The black “street” has taken the message to heart that this is now “their country” and will act accordingly (ala S.A.). With flash-mob mini-riots, the impulsive, layabout blacks have managed to exploit a low-risk method to sate their will-to-mayhem/looting without having to wait for a natural disaster or “raciss” outrage. Terrified, deracinated whites will vote for Obama thinking that by letting blacks have their sock-puppet president it will deter them from violence. They could not be more wrong. Cowards interpret any act of appeasement as a manifestation of weakness and respond with escalating savagery. Violent non-whites are the shock troops of the system…at home and abroad. America, meet domestic terrorism in the service of the globalist elites!

  12. E Pluribus Pluribus says:

    #8 John Engelman : “Republican economic policies always make the rich richer. If, as I suspect, sustained economic growth is no longer possible in America, this can only be achieved by continuing to make the white working class poorer.”


    Economic policy is a worthy topic of debate as to which party, Democrat or Republican, will “make the white working class poorer.”

    Vast swaths of federal policy, however, that is NOT directly economic fall under the heavy sway of the federal court system.

    Think immigration policy: 1982’s 5-to4 Plyler v. Doe decision, ordering taxpayers to fund the schooling of students illegally living in the U. S.; birthright citizenship for children born to illegal aliens, which may one day come before the court; and countless lesser known measures such as Arizona’s SB 1070). Think also housing policy: Section 8 and other federally subsidized housing designed to bring the virtues of diversity to white neighborhoods. Think school assignment policy: the wildly destructive forced busing policies of the 70s, 80s, and 90s.

    Below are the seven Supreme Court appointments of Democrat presidents since 1962:

    President Judge Year Confirmed

    Kennedy – Arthur Goldberg 1962

    Johnson – Abe Fortas 1965

    Johnson – Thurgood Marshal 1967

    Clinton – Ruth Bader Ginsburg 1993

    Clinton – Stephen Breyer 1994

    Obama – Sonya Sotomayor 2009

    Obama – Elena Kagan 2010


    In 50 years, in other words, the Democratic Party has not appointed a SINGLE WHITE MALE or a SINGLE WHITE FEMALE of Christian heritage (protestant or Catholic). And, of course, all Democrat appointees have been extremely liberal.

    There is every reason to expect this pattern to continue if Obama wins a second term. Supreme Courts judge wield immense power in setting social policy. Republican presidents have made a few terrible appointments, usually out of negligence, not by design, and much less so in recent decades. Bush’s two nominees, Roberts and Alito, for example, are not going to be diversity engineers.

    So let John Engelman raise doubts in uninformed minds about the economics as regards what’s at stake in the 2012 election. But there is no excuse for not knowing what’s at stake as regards social policy — which is set by the courts — if the Democrats prevail.

  13. Anonymous says:

    Even though the GOP candidate will win by default thanks to the white vote, the winner will still be determined to be even more “anti-racist” than Obama. The Republican winner will also flirt with amnesty and immigration acceleration, hastening the demise of any possible conservative party in the future. When the whole rotten system collapses under its own weight it won’t matter though.

  14. Anonymous says:

    Any of you “race realists” who happen to be working-class and vote for the GOP just because you think that they are more likely to be on your side when it comes to race issues are crazy. I understand why the GOP gets 2% of of the vote. After all, their policies support the top 2% of wage earners. The rest of their votes comes from the white middle class and white trash who are happy to do the bidding of their rich, white corporate masters.

  15. anonymous says:

    14 — Anonymous at 9:43 PM on June 29:

    so what do you recommend Einstein? vote for Obama? 3rd party?