Global White Population to Plummet to Single Digit—Black Population to Double

National Policy Institute, April 8, 2008


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As a percentage of world inhabitants the white population will plummet to a single digit (9.76%) by 2060 from a high-water mark of 27.98% in 1950.

The study was conducted by William H. Regnery, Mark Stradley, Dean Stradley, and the NPI Staff. The methodology is described in a footnote.

Using 2010 as the base reference the big gainer in the population derby will be blacks or sub-Sahara Africans. This group will expand almost 133% to 2.7 billion by 2060. By the middle of this century blacks will represent 25.38% of world population which is up dramatically from the 8.97% they recorded in 1950.

The other groups measured in the study were the Central Asians (Indians), East Asians (Chinese and Japanese), the Southeast Asians, Arabic (North Africa and the Middle East) and Amerindian-Mestizo (Mexican and Central America). All these groups will experience a population growth. The Chinese/Japanese and Indians will trade rankings and the relative global presence of the other groups will remain more or less constant.

The big population story of the 21st Century is shaping up to be the status reversal of whites and blacks and the Indian baby boom. A side bar will be the single digit minority role that whites will assume. Of the 7 population groups studied only whites are projected to sustain an absolute decline in numbers.

In 1950 whites and blacks were respectively 27.98% and 8.97% of world population. By 2060 these figures will almost reverse as blacks surge to 25.38% and whites shrink to 9.76%. From 2010 the white population will decline while blacks will add 1.2 billion to their numbers. In this time frame the the Indian subcontinent will gain 1.2 billion people. These groups and their governments will be looking for elbow room and the diminished presence of whites in Europe and especially in the relatively wide open spaces North America will provide such an opportunity. Specifically countries like Canada, the United States, Argentina, Brazil, Australia, New Zealand, and Russia can expect to be pressured to accept collectively hundreds of millions of refugees from India, and sub-Sahara Africa.


The estimated population for each group was calculated using the figures from and Example: Columbia has a population listed at 47,289,570, of which the percentages of population are listed as: mestizo 58%, white 20%, mulatto 14%, black 4%, mixed black-Amerindian 3%, Amerindian 1%. Some groups, such as Australian aborigines, black/Amerindian mix, etc. couldn’t easily be classified nor did the have enough of a population to affect the world population, and were not counted in any groups.

The estimated growth ratios of each ethnic group were calculated using the information at, selection 008. This was done by taking the estimated population for each “region” (i.e. Europe for Europeans; sub-Sahara Africa for Africans; Algeria, Egypt, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey for Arabs; Mexico, Guatemala, and El Salvador for Amerindians) for the years 2000, 2010, 2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050 and applying the increase in population to the target year previous to get the percentage of increase. Asians have been split into three different groups: East Asian (Chinese, Japanese, Korean, Mongolian, etc.), Southeast Asian (Indonesian, Malaysian, Vietnamese, Philippinos, Pacific Islanders, etc.), and Central Asian (Indians, Pakistanis, Bengalis, Kyrgizians, Kazakhs, etc.)

The percentages of increase were then applied to the estimates for their group population calculated in the first part to come up with the estimated world and group populations, as well as the percent of the world population each group would make up, for the years 2000, 2010, 2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050.

Regional population estimates for 1950 came from U. N. information as carried by Wikipedia at:

County population estimates were used to fine tune the regional estimates at:

The Asian population was divided into three groups according to the 2000 distribution.

The population estimates and projections were calculated on an order of magnitude basis. We believe them to be representative of the trends indicated and will be pleased to make corrections b rought to our attention.

A short video of this is available at: YouTube

[Editor’s Note: The complete report can be obtained free of charge by e-mail as a PDF document here.]


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