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African-Americans, Youth Not Excited About 2010

More news stories on Barack Obama

Aaron Blake, The Hill, July 29, 2009

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There’s some bad news for a few freshman Democrats.

The latest George Washington University Battleground poll shows black and young voters are unexcited about the idea of voting in the 2010 midterm elections.

Democratic pollster Celinda Lake, speaking at a breakfast hosted by The Christian Science Monitor, labeled the results “sobering.”

In order to test the enthusiasm for voting among groups of voters, the poll surveyed likely voters and asked how many of them were “extremely” likely to vote. In the end, 75 percent of Republicans and 66 percent of Democrats labeled themselves “extremely” likely, but just 60 percent of African-Americans and 58 percent of voters under 35 years old said they were in that category.

That could be bad for Democratic freshmen in districts with significant black minorities, like Reps. Bobby Bright (Ala.), Parker Griffith (Ala.), Glenn Nye (Va.) and Steve Driehaus (Ohio), as well as those with big college populations, like Reps. Mary Jo Kilroy (Ohio) and Tom Perriello (Va.).

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Original article

(Posted on August 3, 2009)

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Comments

1 — Question Diversity wrote at 5:58 PM on August 5:

Midterm elections always have a lower turnout, and the conventional wisdom is that the party of the President will lose seats. President Obama won’t be on the ballot, so that means a sizeable percentage of black voters have no reason to turn out. If enough non-black Democrats sense that Republicans will gain ground anyway, that might keep them at home in a marginal sense as well.

However, looking at Nov. 2010 from this point in time, I don’t think the Republicans will gain enough House seats to gain control, they’re just too far down in the hole. In fact, I can see the Stupid Party making such a mess of a good situation that the Republicans gain seats but a disappointingly few number. In the Senate, it wouldn’t surprise me that the Republicans make no gains. Even though a few Democrats are vulnerable, there are two retiring moderate Republicans, Bond in MO, Voinovich in OH, where the Democrats could flip those. In MO, the Republicans are going to send up an old establishmentarian in the person of Roy Blunt, Jack Abramoff-linked. The Democrats will nominate Mrs. Antolinez, a.k.a. Robin Carnahan. The Blunts hardly ever do well in statewide elections in MO, and the Carnahans do as well as the Blunts do as badly.


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