James G. Gimpel, Center for Immigration Studies, January 27, 2009
In the 2004 general election, President Bush garnered perhaps 39 or 40 percent of the Latino vote. Four years later, after extensive debate on immigration, Sen. McCain received approximately 32 percent of the Latino vote. Some have suggested that the GOP’s stance on immigration has hindered political gains among Hispanic voters.
The Center for Immigration Studies has released a new Backgrounder challenging that assertion. “Latino Voting in the 2008 Election: Part of a Broader Electoral Movement,” by Prof. James G. Gimpel of the University of Maryland, argues that GOP losses in the election were not limited to Hispanic voters and not affected by the immigration debate.
Among the findings:
# Exit polls from Election Day indicated that President Barack Obama won 67 percent of the Latino vote, and John McCain 32 percent. This compares to estimates of Latino support for George W. Bush in the range of 39 percent or higher in 2004. In 2000, Bush is thought to have received 35 percent of the Latino vote.
# McCain’s consistent history of advocating a legalization program for illegal immigrants made no impression on Latino voters.
# McCain lost the Latino vote by a wide margin even in his home state of Arizona, 56 to 41 percent. This was in spite of widespread news coverage of his immigration stance in that state.
# The drop in Republican support among Latinos between 2004 and 2008 was part of a broad-based electoral movement away from the GOP, and was hardly specific to that demographic group. McCain received only 57 percent of the white male vote, compared with 62 percent for Bush in 2004, and McCain’s 55 percent of regular church goers was significantly lower than Bush’s 61 percent.
# Credible surveys indicate that the major policy concerns of Latinos were no different than the concerns of non-Latinos: The economy and jobs topped the list.
# There is little evidence that immigration policy was an influential factor in Latinos’ choice between the two candidates once basic party predispositions are taken into account.
# In 2008, Latino voters supported the GOP ticket at levels above the usual 30 percent only when they resided in states that were already safely in GOP hands.
# The size of the Latino voting population should be kept in perspective alongside other subsets of the electorate. An estimated 11.8 million voters were of Latino ancestry, compared with 17 million African Americans, 19.7 million veterans, 23.6 million young people, 34 million born-again white Christians, and 45 million conservatives.
[Editor’s Note: “Latino Voting in the 2008 Election: Part of a Broader Electoral Movement,” by James G. Gimpel can be read in HTML or downloaded as a PDF file here.
Original article
(Posted on January 28, 2009)
Comments
Minority groups know they are defined by being not the majority.
It’s easy for them to bind together, and they’re going to do it on the organic level: race, language, culture, religion.
They’re not going to do it according to Whiteboy McCain’s fond political notions.
It was quite clear from the start of the presidential race that McCain was meant as a token candidate. He never made an effort to win and made sure to personally derail all efforts to advance his campaign. By all outward appearances, he purposefully sabotaged his own campaign time after time, and the RNC seemed to help him do so.
John McCain is widely viewed as Left-leaning, Moderate hack. He constantly bragged about compromising his principles to “join hands with Liberals across the aisle,” claiming that such behavior was that of a “maverick”. In that respect, I suppose Benedict Arnold was a maverick too.
McCain was never embraced by Conservative voters, and rightly so.
He, along with many of his Republican peers in Congress in both the House and the Senate, betrayed voters and are continuing to betray voters.
Incidentally, let’s make no mistake about the entire ruse of “the national credit crisis” and “California has been out of money for 17 months” and so forth. That’s all a fabricated lie to cover the fact that the most prominent politicans and corporate zealots have robbed tax payers. If the money is actually gone, guess where it went.
They’re all thieves. We’d do well to remember that.
Isn’t McCain a Washington power player. Isn’t he a member of a number of think tanks and groups that promote globalism. Isn’t he involved involved in that mix of people who outsource jobs, advocate illegal immigration and amnesty, pro-affirmative action and multiculturalism, progressive taxation and increased government presence in the average citizens private lives. Mccain wasn’t just soft on immigration to get votes he’s soft on immigration because it is whats expected of him and he knows it.
The GOP’s hispandering is completely worthless. Nothing the GOP says or does is going to win over the Latino vote.
If the Latino vote comprises a smaller segment, why does the GOP isolate its base in trying to aim for a group that isn’t likely to significantly affect the election?
I’ve got some advise for the GOP: Stop pandering to Hispanics by offering them amnesty and instead target conservatives who stay at home during election night due to the isolation they feel because of you. Voter turn-out rates are at like 50%, so you’ve got a lot of potential voters, a lot more than the insignificant number of Latinos you might win over by offering them amnesty at the expense of your own base.
Will the GOP ever learn? or will they continue being stupid and stubborn?
How many whites didn’t vote for McCain because of his amnesty policy ? The Republicans new theme song to the liberals seems to be, ” Anything you can do, I can do better.”
The choice for many Hispanic voters was easy:
One the one side, you had a Presidential candidate who was for amnesty, open borders and big government, especially for social welfare. On the other side, you had a Presidential candidate who was for amnesty, open borders, and slightly less big government, especially for social welfare.
Obama won the Hispanic vote because of the welfare promises.
“John McCain’s softness on immigration didn’t win him Hispanic votes.”
It’s the Karl Rove types, and the neo-cons who have exaggerated the importance of ethnic politics. They advocate changing basic principles in order to attract these people instead of maintaining a set of principles that won’t be compromised and attracting only those voters who agree with their platform, regardless of race or ethnicity. The reason they don’t get many non-white supporters is because the vast majority are out to get anything they can for themselves and to hell with the country. By offering to give them freebies, they get a handful, but they lose literally millions upon millions of their white base.
If the Republicans stayed with the moderates, the far right, and the Sarah Palin supporters, who amount to quite a lot of people, they wouldn’t have to compromise basic tenants in order to fish around for votes from people who don’t like and resent whites.
Reagan did very well following that policy to the letter.
Bull ..the Latino vote isnt 11%…its 55% in the most populous state California…whats the Latino voter base in Texas? or Miami?
The Black vote will always be along racial lines in favor of Liberal Democrats and their fellow Blacks. The Hispanic, Muslim, Jewish, Asian, and Gay votes will always be decidedly pro-Liberal Democrat. The White vote will be fractured. Liberals will vote for Democrats, but Conservatives will vote less and less for Republicans and more and more for pro-White candidates willing to stand up for the rights of Conservative Whites. They will be castigated by the media as “racists” and will never have a real chance at winning national elections.
Democrats will obtain more and more power. Marxism, Liberalism, Socialism, and Communism will become the new norms in America until a revolution ultimately occurs.
The Republican Party’s days are completely over. They have no credibility left with White Conservatives. Their current pretense in Congress is nauseating. They should join the Democrats now and stop the act. They had six years of unlimited control to advance Conservatism in America. Instead, they robbed taxpayers, compromised America’s soverignty and security, surrendered the nation to undesirables, and betrayed every White conservative in America.
If the Republican Party really wants the Brown, Black, Yellow, mongrel, and Gay vote, let them have it. They will *NEVER* get my vote or my campaign contrbutions again. I hope every White Conservative reaches the same decision.
“John McCains softness on immigration didn’t win him Hispanic votes.”
No it didn’t, but that hasn’t stopped old John,”Americans wouldn’t pick lettuce for fifty dollars an hour” McCain. The last i read about him, he is advising Pres.Obama on how neccessary amnesty is. God protect Americans from politicians like him. He needs to be investigated.
Two things:
First of all the two parties flip the white house every 8 years almost on a regular basis. Second, McCain was a token canidate who represented no one other than himself. It was ‘his turn’. Thirdly, the GOP must realize it is a White Christian party and now that McCain and his ilk are finished maybe now we can get back to business: hard line anti-marxism.
That is all.
gee vee said,
How many whites didn’t vote for McCain because of his amnesty policy ?
Well considering that something on the order of 7-8 million people who voted for Bush in ‘04 ended up not voting for McCain, it’s a good bet his stance on amnesty sunk his chances of even making the election a “close-call”, at the very least.
I’d like to observe that, although Republican support seems to have dropped in all demographic groups, the reasons for the drops in the individual (or specific) demographic groups are different from one another.
In other words, since Hispanics, as minorities, tend towards liberalism, they are naturally going to be attracted to a Democrat, as they were in 2000 and 2004. However, thinking along these lines, their support for Republicans should have increased as Republicans became more liberal—especially as Republicans became more liberal with respect to the immigration issue.
But, of course, we didn’t see that. Instead, the Republicans put forth a candidate who was basically a radical leftist on immigration (and has been one for his entire career), and yet the Hispanics end up voting for the black Democrat in even higher numbers than before.
The whites, on the other hand, have come, at best, to mistrust Beltway elites, and, at worst, to despise them. They couldn’t bring themselves to excitement about McCain. They realized that McCain was, not to use the rhetoric of Obama intentionally, another four years of Bush, i.e., shipping more jobs overseas, letting in hundreds of thousands (if not millions) more immigrants, legal and illegal (and then making the illegal ones legal), starting another expensive and bloody war in the Middle East, restarting the Cold War with Russia, etc. Thus, they didn’t show up in huge numbers to vote for McCain, even if Obama would be even worse.
The Democrats, in all honesty, have been given imperium civitatis.
The GOP is in shambles and rightly so. They refused to do
I have heard the comments of several Republican “consultants” on TV. All they say is that if the Republicans arrange to allow even more Hispanic immigrants into the country, all will be well. The Hispanics will follow their “conservative,” family-orientated values, and vote Republican. They literally appear to say that if more Hispanics are allowed in, the number of Hispanics voting Republican will go up. That is, they ignore the fact that the PERCENTAGE of Hispanic votes for Republicans and Democrats will remain the same. They are that stupid, or that evil.
On election day I walked into my chosen little voting booth…and walked out. It was a solemn, and defining and pretty much symbolic order. I already knew I wouldn’t vote, but upon seeing it real and up close, i knew both were the same. America is without a real president. As far as i’m concerned after the fall of the Republic in 1865, and than more pushing for this ‘liberal democracy’ in 1965, America was on the out. Now we’re just like that old teetering 4th Century Roman Empire….I don’t think of the obama man as Odoacer….perhaps in 50 years when this nation is a complete third world slum of only a few scattered pockets of Whites, than we’ll have our odacer.
Please everyone email the RNC at chairman@gop.com and let them know where you stand. They vote on the 30th January for a new RNC Chairman. There are several neocons including two black affirmative action quota candidates competing for the seat. These people are trojan horses to keep the liberals in power indefinitely. Tell them what you think as they plot a new course for the Republican Party.
I’m ready to dispense with the Senate and back a Caesar. If we’re going to live under an autocratic government, let them be pro-White autocrats. Much better than the freedom to live in AfroMexChinland.
”# The drop in Republican support among Latinos between 2004 and 2008 was part of a broad-based electoral movement away from the GOP, and was hardly specific to that demographic group. McCain received only 57 percent of the white male vote, compared with 62 percent for Bush in 2004, and McCain’s 55 percent of regular church goers was significantly lower than Bush’s 61 percent.”
Those statistics right there should be the warning buzzer to the Republicans, that they need to do everything they possibly can preserve what is left of this country’s white majority and if possible increase it back to 75% or greater. If they do not, they will never be the majority party again, and will be a permanent and anachronistic minority party representing the ideas of a dwindling plurality of the population that is white.
Will they do this? It is highly doubtful, since all of their new “solutions” revolve around Bobby Jindal and Michael Steel as being the harbingers of the coming “diversity” in the party. The one thing that might sucker punch them back to reality, is if Comrade General Secretary BO fails abysmally and there is a considerable white backlash against him in 2010 and 2012. However, even that would likely be glossed over as being the failures of his “brand of socialism” and whites’ “residual racism,” that needs to be overcome at all costs.
As always, God help us all!
*KRONOS*
Those statistics right there should be the warning buzzer to the Republicans…
The Republican Party is racing merrily along in the opposite direction, as giddy as they can be. Today, they embraced a Black man, Michael Steele, as their new Black messiah.
Any White person who votes Republican now should have his or her head examined.
Like that Lesbian, anti-White educator, who had her skull bashed in recently by a Black assailant, the Republican Party has not learned after having its political skull bashed in by its former Black puppets, Colin Powell and JC Watts.
Even Super-LIberal Whites like Hillary, who is essentially a Black woman, had her (political) skull bashed in by Black voters.
The lesson for Whites who are in love with Blacks is always the same.
Is this supposed to be a suprise? Of course a political party that has spent the last 40 years promising to rob white taxpayers in order to pay for goodies to hand out to dysfunctional minorities will receive more votes from those minorities. I’m only curious that ANY Hispanics would bother voting for the GOP. What are they thinking?
There are two reasons why I didn’t vote for McCain:
1. His love of illegal alien amnesty.
2. His thinking that the solution to losing wars in Afghanistan
I suspect I’m not the only white person who refused to vote for McCain for those reasons. Of course I didn’t vote for Obama either.
To Anonymous, regarding:
“The Republican Party is racing merrily along in the opposite direction, as giddy as they can be. Today, they embraced a Black man, Michael Steele, as their new Black messiah.”
And thus, perhaps, the Republican Party has sealed its own fate for today’s folly and tomorrow’s fortunes of the white race? These fools, may just see that pachyderm of their’s split in half, with them holding the rump end of it all?
Make no mistakes, I am as disgusted as you are with this multicultural urination contest; the treasons are legion, and they leave the American body politic covered in lesions!
However, one fine day, sooner than we all think, that can change. Just think about what this country might be like in the future, should 45 or 65 million whites have a new party to vote for?
A party that was not the limp rump of that grand old elephant, but one that was waving its wretched head on its own tusks instead?
Just something to think about Anonymous,
John PM
*KRONOS*
