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As if Things Weren’t Bad Enough, Russian Professor Predicts End of US

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Andrew Osborn, Wall Street Journal, Dec. 29, 2008

For a decade, Russian academic Igor Panarin has been predicting the U.S. will fall apart in 2010. For most of that time, he admits, few took his argument—that an economic and moral collapse will trigger a civil war and the eventual breakup of the U.S.—very seriously. Now he’s found an eager audience: Russian state media.

In recent weeks, he’s been interviewed as much as twice a day about his predictions. “It’s a record,” says Prof. Panarin. “But I think the attention is going to grow even stronger.”

Prof. Panarin, 50 years old, is not a fringe figure. A former KGB analyst, he is dean of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s academy for future diplomats. He is invited to Kremlin receptions, lectures students, publishes books, and appears in the media as an expert on U.S.-Russia relations.

But it’s his bleak forecast for the U.S. that is music to the ears of the Kremlin, which in recent years has blamed Washington for everything from instability in the Middle East to the global financial crisis. Mr. Panarin’s views also fit neatly with the Kremlin’s narrative that Russia is returning to its rightful place on the world stage after the weakness of the 1990s, when many feared that the country would go economically and politically bankrupt and break into separate territories.

A polite and cheerful man with a buzz cut, Mr. Panarin insists he does not dislike Americans. But he warns that the outlook for them is dire.

“There’s a 55-45% chance right now that disintegration will occur,” he says. “One could rejoice in that process,” he adds, poker-faced. “But if we’re talking reasonably, it’s not the best scenario—for Russia.” Though Russia would become more powerful on the global stage, he says, its economy would suffer because it currently depends heavily on the dollar and on trade with the U.S.

Mr. Panarin posits, in brief, that mass immigration, economic decline, and moral degradation will trigger a civil war next fall and the collapse of the dollar. Around the end of June 2010, or early July, he says, the U.S. will break into six pieces—with Alaska reverting to Russian control.

{snip}

The professor says he began his career in the KGB in 1976. In post-Soviet Russia, he got a doctorate in political science, studied U.S. economics, and worked for FAPSI, then the Russian equivalent of the U.S. National Security Agency. He says he did strategy forecasts for then-President Boris Yeltsin, adding that the details are “classified.”

In September 1998, he attended a conference in Linz, Austria, devoted to information warfare, the use of data to get an edge over a rival. It was there, in front of 400 fellow delegates, that he first presented his theory about the collapse of the U.S. in 2010.

“When I pushed the button on my computer and the map of the United States disintegrated, hundreds of people cried out in surprise,” he remembers. He says most in the audience were skeptical. “They didn’t believe me.”

At the end of the presentation, he says many delegates asked him to autograph copies of the map showing a dismembered U.S.

He based the forecast on classified data supplied to him by FAPSI analysts, he says. He predicts that economic, financial and demographic trends will provoke a political and social crisis in the U.S. When the going gets tough, he says, wealthier states will withhold funds from the federal government and effectively secede from the union. Social unrest up to and including a civil war will follow. The U.S. will then split along ethnic lines, and foreign powers will move in.

California will form the nucleus of what he calls “The Californian Republic,” and will be part of China or under Chinese influence. Texas will be the heart of “The Texas Republic,” a cluster of states that will go to Mexico or fall under Mexican influence. Washington, D.C., and New York will be part of an “Atlantic America” that may join the European Union. Canada will grab a group of Northern states Prof. Panarin calls “The Central North American Republic.” Hawaii, he suggests, will be a protectorate of Japan or China, and Alaska will be subsumed into Russia.

{snip}

The professor says he’s convinced that people are taking his theory more seriously. People like him have forecast similar cataclysms before, he says, and been right. He cites French political scientist Emmanuel Todd. Mr. Todd is famous for having rightly forecast the demise of the Soviet Union—15 years beforehand. “When he forecast the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1976, people laughed at him,” says Prof. Panarin.

Original article

(Posted on January 2, 2009)

Prof. Panarin's map of a post-breakup America.
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Comments

1 — john wrote at 4:49 PM on January 2:

I could imagine some what Panarin is predicting, specifically severe civil unrest and perhaps a number of secession movements, most likely of the south-central states and perhaps places like Wyoming and the Dakotas.

I don’t see any of these potential future secessionist areas coming under the control of Mexico, China, or Europe, however.

Far more likely is that the EU will fall apart as the individual component countries suddenly remember their differences and all the great and bloody sport in the 20th Century they enjoyed while trying to settle those differences.

2 — Anonymous wrote at 5:16 PM on January 2:

I don’t think Mr. Panarin has a very good knowledge of the US if he thinks southern states like Alabama or Georgia will be part of Mexico or under Mexican control. Atlantic America has a heavy black and hispanic population running from SC up into NYC. He also has staunchly conservative states allied with liberal wacko ones. I can’t see the EU allowing them to join in light of the fact that they turned down Morocco because it was not culturally, geographically or demographically European. I also don’t see China coming into play, at least not on the mainland US. I believe the country will breakup but not along the configuration he suggests, except for Alaska and Hawaii, which I think he’s right about. Mexican influence would extend through Southern California, Southern Nevada, Southern Arizona, all of New Mexico and all but the Eastern half of Texas. I can see Oregon, Washington and Northern California forming it’s own enclave along with the New England States. South Florida is a big question mark. There are too many Whites in the South for blacks to form any political alliance not that I believe they’re capable of it. They don’t want to be jarred loose from the host body they’re feeding off. The New America could be reconstituted from the Midwest, Rocky Mountain and Southern states.

3 — Whiteplight wrote at 5:19 PM on January 2:

At least this guy serves to remind Amreners why we should not hope for the US to break up into smaller, racial and ethinically seperate states. Aside from this obvious problem - that we are likely to loose territory to more dangerous potential enemies than even Blacks and Hispanics, etc., An all White (Christian) nation would collapse from within because of zero trade, hostile neighbors (ex-fellow Americans, etc.). A scenario as this venerable Russian professor predicts is only likely if the remainder of the world also breaks up into smaller ethnic and racial majority regions. In such a situation, the current standards of living world wide would drop to the level of say - the Philippines.

4 — Question Diversity wrote at 5:29 PM on January 2:

While I don’t agree with the map (I can ill imagine Kentucky allying with Vermont, and New Mexico not in the same league as California), anyone with half a brain that can read Gibbon’s “Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire” can predict this.

5 — GetBackJack wrote at 5:54 PM on January 2:

I’ll head to the pink or peach part. No way I want to be ruled by the Mexicans or the Chinese, not that being ruled by my own has been any fun for the past 40 years.

6 — aj wrote at 6:04 PM on January 2:

This stuff is frankly quite stupid, and belongs in conspiracy theory websites, not AR. At present, there is no serious pressure for secession from any credible establishment figures or politcal parties. A complete disintegration is unthinkable within the next two years.

While I would think disintegration would be a good thing, his predictions are way off the mark. Once the country becomes Hispanic enough, whites will get fed up and want out, but we are still a few decades from this point.

7 — Douglas wrote at 6:16 PM on January 2:

He may very well be correct that the US is headed for civil war, but I highly doubt the southeast will be under Mexican influence. Mexico is too corrupt and weak to defeat the hundreds of thousands of southern gun owning white boys. The blacks will not be welcomed by the Hispanics, so I doubt they could gang up to prevent whites from maintaining control.

8 — Arcadian wrote at 6:16 PM on January 2:

With the arrival of Obama and his European Socialist ideology, I’m not surprised to see the right hand side of the map designated as coming under the influence of the European Union. For a long time I have considered the Socialist infiltration of the US to be European driven. The Obama ideology didn’t come from the US Constitution or the American mindset.I think it came directly from Europe. The desire of our ‘cousins’ to regain what they lost, sold or gave away 200 years ago must be a constant irritation to them, reminding them of the power that they lost. However, had these United States remained as colonies or possessions of European masters it is unlikely, as is evident from Europe today that the successful world power Capitalist society would have developed. More likely is that that they would have remained like France or Belgium today, awaiting takeover by Islamists or Asians.
Europeans have a history of dictatorships, monarchies and oppression; I suspect that America’s rejection of their systems of government has never truly been forgiven, hence their relentless infiltration and undermining of the ‘American way of life’.
I’m not sure that I agree with the central Canadian influence area. Canada is not going anywhere other than back to European influence either.
It’s all a bit academic anyway, once the Islamists control much of the weaponry, including nukes in France and Britain in about 10 years’, America the Great Satan or whatever remains of it, is going to have some big decisions to make. Joining Europe is more likely to be joining the European Islamic Caliphate.

Arc.

9 — Tony Soprano. wrote at 6:18 PM on January 2:

For a decade, Russian academic Igor Panarin has been predicting the U.S. will fall apart in 2010. ………….It’s ironic that the year 2010 is the year that a certain mexican government official demanded that the North American Union should be formed.

10 — D.B. Cooper wrote at 6:27 PM on January 2:

Most of clueless America doesn’t even seem to care. That map shows only four distinct parts.
I’ll bet most people will STILL refuse to see the reason why.
Therefore, we can expect to see further breakup from within those four sections.
I don’t believe the part about Alaska going back to Russia. That majority white state is pretty self sufficient, and lacks diversity. If anything, it may become a destination of white flight.

11 — Trisket wrote at 6:38 PM on January 2:

Wishful thinking. I agree with the prospect of chaos and the break up, but the sworn national defense agencies will thwart any foreigh takeover. US nuclear weapons will pound whom ever tries to invade and interfere, thus sparking a similar nuclear attack rendering the US mostly useless.

12 — gee vee wrote at 6:45 PM on January 2:

I think most people are smart enough to see that the dismemberment of this country would not be in their best interest. I know many people are ticked off no end, but don’t forget that we are better off than most people in the world. A break-up of the United States would only encourage intervention by foreign powers. Would you like to be ruled by the Chinese, Russians, or Japanese ? Would the states of the west coast come to the aid of Floridians if we were under attack by Venezuela ? Would Floridians march north if there was an invasion of New York ?

13 — Anonymous wrote at 7:30 PM on January 2:

“…wealthier states will withhold funds from the federal government…”
For an “American Expert”, Panarin’s knowledge of taxation in the U.S. is deficient. Federal taxes are paid directly to the Federal treasury, not to the State treasuries. Thus, there is no way states could withhold tax revenues or any other monies from the Feds. In fact, money flows in the opposite direction; the Federal government funds many State and Local governmental functions: schooling, police, roads, and other “ear markings”. This process allows the Federal government vast extra-constitutional control over states. The Feds say, “Follow this mandate, or else we will withhold the Federal funding that you have become dependant upon”.
States may protest a bit, but they always cave in (it’s a process that I call reverse extortion). Thus, in addition to its vast military force, the Feds also have a powerful financial weapon to use against state secession. I have no doubt the Feds would use them against any states that threatened secession.

14 — Robert Kelly wrote at 8:00 PM on January 2:

Panarin expects the country to break along lines of ethnicity in a civil war. I’m assuming he means race also, when he refers to ethnicity. Chittum says the same. (Civil War II.) Where they differ drastically is in the partition of the US and those influences that will prevail.

Chittum thinks the Southwest will go to Hispanics in their quest of the fabled land of Aztlan and that they will have a close relationship with Mexico. He believes the Southeast will go black, with the exception of Florida. The rest of the country he sees as white-dominated.

Chittum’s forecast seems more realistic to me, because there is so much contentious fighting right now between all of America’s tribal units it’s blaringly evident it can’t continue as it has without erupting. Every group is at odds with every other group to some extent. And Chittum knows the people of this country much better than Prof. Panarim, especially the racial make-up.

But there’s one more factor the Professor hasn’t considered. It’s the Canadian factor. Does he really believe that Canada is going to remain undivided if the racial and political elements in the US are fighting for control? He’s wrong if he does, because the non-whites in Canada will be pursuing uprisings galore once they see their brethren duking it out in the US, and there are staunch white conservatives in Canada, who amount to many people, who will want to fight for their side, so it’s highly unlikely any part of the US will fall under Canadian influence.

In fact, as Chittum describes, it’s very likely the white portion of the US will extend from north Georgia in the East to Northern California in the West, dipping down to take in all of Nevada, going all the way up through, and including Canada, as the white share of North America.

In my estimation, the odds are far greater that White America and Canada will unite as one white nation, with Canada’s non-whites heading for points south. By that time, radical leftist whites in Canada won’t be a force strong enough to matter.

But too, it should be noted that it isn’t all about race. Not anymore. Now we have an 1860 scenario in play. In fact some are saying 2009 is 1860 all over again, because we have the white population breaking along lines of ideology: Secular progressives who want more government control and complete egalitarianism; and a more conservative faction that consists of mainline, conservative moderates, to the far right fringe.

The most vicious fighting could very well between these two groups, because they literally despise each other every bit as much as the various races hate each other, but any contest between them would result in the total elimination of the radical left, because, while they’re more vocal, they’re far, far less in numbers……..and there will be many, many converts.

Too, as other writers have pointed out, although Europe doesn’t have the hordes of third worlders as we do, they still have enough to create turmoil, especially after the ball gets rolling in the US. They’ve already had much more violence occur there than we have here. Also, Prof. Panarim hasn’t taken into consideration the domino effect the US will create when the choas starts here. Much more turmoil goes on in Europe than it does right now in the US, regarding non-white populations.

There’s much involved in this coming chaos, and the way it will eventually develop is going to be determined by what various factors are at play when the balloon goes up.

The only thing I think can be forecast with any certainty is that multicultural societies are recipes for disaster, and it only takes a bit of trouble or an economic downturn to prove that’s true.



15 — John PM wrote at 8:19 PM on January 2:

“Prof. Panarin, 50 years old, is not a fringe figure. A former KGB analyst, he is dean of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s academy for future diplomats. He is invited to Kremlin receptions, lectures students, publishes books, and appears in the media as an expert on U.S.-Russia relations.”

So it is good to know that Prof. Panarin is not a “fringe figure,” but simply a “former” KGB analyst; that means if Russia should totally collapse in the next 1 to 10 years, he will have a waiting job for himself with MSNBC. Look out Keith and Chris, seriously!

I do not discount all of what the good professor has to say; however, I do question some issues, such as this for example:

“Canada will grab a group of Northern states Prof. Panarin calls ‘The Central North American Republic.’”

How is Canada going to do that with only about 32 million people in that country, compared to the proposed “Central North American Republic’s” approximately 57 to 62 million people? Particularly considering the industrial bases of: Michigan, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, and Wisconsin? Is it not more likely that the envisioned “Central North American Republic” might do such an annexation in the reverse?

Moreover, what if it was suddenly to become allied with some southern states that wanted no part of the “Texas Republic” or “Atlantic America,” such as: North Carolina, Kentucky, Virginia, West Virginia, Tennessee, Georgia, South Carolina, Mississippi, or Alabama?

What then?

Just something to think about,

John PM!

16 — Xenophon wrote at 8:27 PM on January 2:

I agree that the crackup may happen sooner than many expect. But the pieces will still be powerful economic and military units. If Texas becomes independent, it will be Mexico that will be in danger, not Texas. The eleven states of the Old Confederacy would constitute by themselves the third largest economy in the world. Any nations trying to move in for the kill will be jolted into a quick reality.

17 — flyingtiger wrote at 9:45 PM on January 2:

I really do not see most of this coming. America will not spilt due to economics, but due to race. Blacks may want a separate nation but will not work for it. The minute the hispanics attack they will want to rejoin us for protection and to get the generous welfare payments. The Mexicans talk big. Besides mexico is at war with the drug dealers in their country. Canada has their own unity problems and has too few people. China invading? Ha! Ha! Ha! Where are they going to get the shipping?
Siberia may break away from Russia and merge with Alaska.

18 — idareya wrote at 10:04 PM on January 2:

Texas as part of or under the influence of Mexico? I don’t think so. While Anglos may now be officially a minority in Texas, it’s not by that much. Also, Texans love Texas and the thought of losing it back to Mexico would be one hell of a rallying cry. It would get ugly, REAL ugly but I think Texas would either join a U.S.-centric block or go it alone.

19 — passerby wrote at 10:49 PM on January 2:

Seems that most of you are thinking that a hostile takeover is what Panarin is referring to when he says that we will be absorbed or influenced by other countries. No. If we have a serious enough economic collapse and civil upheaval it would be more of a rescue. A humanitarian necessity for us and them. The world needs for our economy to work. If it collapses it will need to be rebuilt and rebuilt quickly. No one invaded the soviet union or any of its allies. Their governments collapsed because their economic system collapsed. East Germany became absorbed by W.Germany and we the USA influenced new governments into place through out the former East Bloc.
If the economic worst case happens we will welcome stability and the burden could be shared the China and the EEC. We will not change but what we call ourselves and how we govern ourselves may just change. but for the betterment of our economic system. An economic Katrina.

20 — Anonymous wrote at 10:53 PM on January 2:

I think that it is very possible for secession movements to start becoming more powerful in the next few years, but this guy’s map is ridiculous. Utah under Chinese control? Alabama under Mexican control? A more likely scenario is a reemerging Southern independence movement, a movement for an independent Texas Republic, an independent Hawaii, an independent Alaska, and a conservative, possibly Mormon state in the Mountain West. With the exception of Hawaii, because of their conservative policies, all of these states will become virtual white racial states in a matter of years.
And to all the people on here who keep bad-mouthing secession movements - this Southerner couldn’t disagree more. If you want to continue to be yoked to and dragged down by the Left coast and NYC then go ahead. I care about Northern whites just like I care about Canadian whites, but you are not my people. The South was once free and will be again.

21 — Anonymous wrote at 10:58 PM on January 2:

I think most people are smart enough to see that the dismemberment of this country would not be in their best interest. ?

I can’t understand this mentality. Nothing is more important than securing a racially homogeneous territory. Whether that means allowing heavily inundated regions to peel off, retaining a white rump (with large clumps of hostile but politically otiose blacks), or disintegration into racially based ‘ethnostates’, isn’t at this stage important. Everything else — ‘reunification,’ ‘reconquest’ — can come later.

22 — EA Steve wrote at 12:00 AM on January 3:

I don’t think the U.S. will break up, until Whites are too small (in numbers) to successfully secede.

However, if the U.S. were to break up within the next 10-20 years, here is what I would predict: Alaska joins Canada (at least for the interim), and Hawaii becomes independent until meeting an Asian power.

The Brown Hispanics will have at least South Florida, Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada, and most of California.

Blacks will have at least Louisiana, Mississippi, and maybe southern Alabama. The black leaning wildcards are North Florida, South Georgia, and South Carolina. The White leaning wildcards are Colorado, Arkansas, north Georgia and the Eastern coast from North Carolina to New York.

Most of the rest would likely go to Whites, with a few small concessions to American Indians and Northeast Asians.

23 — Memphomaniac wrote at 12:20 AM on January 3:

I agree with the gentleman that the USA will break up in the near future….and I am sure that many others here would give him that much too. But like the other posters here, I do not think he knows much about the geography of that breakup. There will only be three parts to a disunited states of america.

I expect the South to continue to be the most regionally identified part of the country…..from North Carolina to Oklahoma, and all states south of that line. I expect the remaining states to break up as East and West, dividing along the Mississippi River. I do not doubt that subgroups of these three parts will attempt to break away too, but the three main parts will use comprehensive pressure to retain control.

The South will find it difficult to avoid war with Mexico, so hold onto your hat. Mexico will try to recover Texas and there will be Texans that will help them. There will even be Texans that will prefer to go it alone as the Republic of Texas, but none of this will work. The South will fight for Texas and the South will expell the millions of illegal aliens. Both sides, therefore, will have plenty of reasons for war. (The East and the West will not try to expell their illegal alien populations, except on a state by state basis.)

I expect the South to be the first of the former US states to establish a working government. War with Mexico will speed that process enormously.

The East will retain Washington, DC and very possibly continue with the illusion that the USA continues to exist, just with fewer states. The Yankee will not have the will to compel the rest of the country to remain in the Union, being much too busy with wars in the Middle East.

The West will be the most unstable part of the breakup, the weakest government, and the most confusion and chaos. Some states, like Hawaii and Alaska, will pretend to ignore the coalition of states in the West and the West will be uninterested in doing anything about it. The conservative flyover states and the high plains, east of the Rockies and west of the Mississippi, will have almost nothing in common with the government in California, but the government in the West will be so weak it will simply be ignored rather than broken up.

Yes, we can do this! 2010?…..OK.

24 — HH wrote at 12:59 AM on January 3:

I must agree with others in that some manner of American collapse seems imminent at this point. However, this particular scenario seems exceedingly unlikely. What specifically makes anyone believe that were America to fall apart, it would do so in such a neat and definable fashion? Why would states - as they exist today - necessarily remain intact at all? Demographically, many of the inter-connected states shown on the Prof.’s map are so similar in population make-up, industry and geography/topography, etc., why would things come apart in that manner?

I just don’t see this as realistic for reasons too numerous to even state here.


25 — JH wrote at 3:19 AM on January 3:

Panarin’s predictions are poorly researched.

“California will form the nucleus of what he calls “The Californian Republic,” and will be part of China or under Chinese influence”

He has most of the Hispanic southwest going to China, who’s economy is dependent on the United States and who is thousands of miles away with a navy that can’t attack the Phillipines.

“Alaska will be subsumed into Russia.”

Russia can barely populate its western territory so how could they ever take Alaska?

“Canada will grab a group of Northern states Prof. Panarin calls “The Central North American Republic.”“

If the United States disintegrates so does Canada, probably even worse if its supposedly caused by mass immigration, moral disintegration, and economic downturn.

“Mr. Panarin’s views also fit neatly with the Kremlin’s narrative that Russia is returning to its rightful place on the world stage”

Soviet power was a myth. It was concocted to create a hegemonic order in world politics and was politically expedient for power bearers in US big business, politics, and industry.


This article made me laugh out loud. It wouldn’t even be possible that 300 million people working on mortgages could split the country with the most powerful military and political force on the planet. If there is one thing I will give our government, it is that they have the system on lock.

Keep dreaming…

26 — Anonymous wrote at 3:29 AM on January 3:

I do believe we are headed for a break up. Not the way he sees it, but if things deteriorate fast enough, we would definitely balkanize along ethnic fault lines. Effectively there already are large areas ‘under control’ of China - the Chinatowns in major cities - strong ethnically homogenous blocks with a hard to penetrate culture.

The funny thing is the way the commentators on the wall street journal’s site brushed it off with such chest beating hubris. The same sort of hubris that led to the ‘price will never go down’ mortgage bubble.

27 — Leon Haller wrote at 7:25 AM on January 3:

This article is pathologically stupid. The kernel of truth, which naturally appeals to many AR supporters, is the obvious point that race makes the nation (or at least is its foundation), and thus multiracial societies are not viable in the long run (though those “runs” can be very “long”). It is also the case that whites are civilizationally superior to most other peoples, and that our ridiculous and unnecessary experiment with racial integration coupled with mass non-white immigration is therefore continuously lowering our national quality, which itself could eventually threaten our continuation as a unitary nation-state, even apart from any uncontrollable explosion of racial hostilities.

Thus the long-term prognosis for the political coherence of the US is at best mixed. The immediate question is temporal: how “long” is the “long-term”? Or, what would cause us to suppose that the US is in imminent (as opposed to ultimate) danger of fragmentation? The answer is nothing at all. For all the serious and growing divisions which exist in our country, there is very little sentiment amongst ANY identifiable groups, beyond fringe elements, for ethnic partition (many of us fervently wish there were more such sentiment, but we’re not nearly there yet). There are far too many persons, not just white conservatives, who have strong stakes in the continued viability of the US - and very few who can plausibly envision how they might be bettered by partition. Indeed, the only group which objectively (materially) would be bettered is our own - yet it is amongst OUR people (especially non-racialist conservatives) that attachment to unitary America is the strongest.

The US may eventually fissure, but only (at least before 2050, assuming current demographic trends) because enough whites have decided to call it quits. We should work towards thay goal - if we wish to have our own country again someday. But we would be deluding ourselves to think that very many whites will be ready in a mere year or two, whatever the state of the economy or society, to turn their thumbs down on America, from sea to shining sea.

28 — Not Economically Viable wrote at 7:26 AM on January 3:

An interesting an amusing analysis, but not one grounded in demographic, cultural or geo-political reality. The probable (indeed, all but guaranteed) dissolution of the present US is an issue I have long been considering myself …

I predict that Alaska will, sooner or later, be either sold or mortgaged against out of control federal borrowing. Likely buyers must - for historic reasons - include Russia, and possibly Canada, but resource-hungry and dollar-rich China must be the top contender.

Hawaii will become independent at some point, due to declining white demographics. Soon after, it will fall into the Japanese sphere of influence.

California, New Mexico, Nevada, Arizona, most of Texas and parts of Utah (“Aztlan”) will be absorbed into Mexico, essentially nineteenth century history in reverse.

Washington and Oregon,will become provinces of Canada, with which they share much culture and ideology.

Michigan will disintegrate, with the Upper Peninsular breaking away under the name “Superior” as a Canadian province. They will do this to escape the fate of rump Michigan. The rump of Michigan will eventually become an Islamic caliphate populated mainly by Arabs. Michigan’s blacks will flee the death of manufacturing and the rise of the caliphate in a migration to remaining urban US areas.


Most of the Florida peninsular will become an independent Spanish-speaking state, closely allied with a newly independent Cuba - the “mother country”.

I stand by the above predictions.

As to the fate of the rest of the US, I am puzzled. Will it hang together? Or will that, too, disintegrate? Will, for example, Dixie’s star rise again? I just have no idea, but it will doubtless become clearer in the next few years.

The fall of 2010 seems highly improbable. I would suggest fifteen to twenty years as a more likely timeframe. The US is living on borrowed time, though, and is doing so as I write these words.

Whatever the precise outcome, future historians will damn all presidents and all congresses after Eisenhower. ALL of them, without exception.

29 — Question Diversity wrote at 9:24 AM on January 3:

HH: I agree with you. What the Prof. is forgetting is that in the dissolution, certain cities (Chicago, New York) won’t want to remain part of either their respective states, much less the country, based on the differences between NYC-Upstate and Chicago-Downstate. I can easily see them becoming independent city-states, similar to the pattern of ancient Greece.

30 — ricpic wrote at 10:18 AM on January 3:

If we enter a great depression anything is possible. Barring that event none of this is even likely.

31 — Kenelm Digby wrote at 10:20 AM on January 3:

For what its worth my pet theory is that the USA will go with a ‘whimper’ and not a ‘bang’.
I can’t help feeling that Prof. Panarin is motivated more by an unconscious schadefreude and wish-fulfillment fantasy after seeing the terrible dismemberment of whose own homeland (in a way he ‘predicts’ for the USA), back in the early 90s.
Basically, I believe in the analogy of the ‘slowly bolied frog’ (ie things get progressively worse every year, but it’s imperceptible).
Of course demographics speak of a White minority prior to 2042, which isn’t far away - and in that sense the good ol US of A of Washington, Jefferson, Franklin et al. has died in a very real and profound sense - much deeper in fact than Panarin’s geo-global ‘risk-game’ fantasy of nasty, multiple competitive states.
No the future is less dramatic and bombastic but infinitely more horrible in the general mundane sense of the squalor of daily life (ie Brazil Del Norte), think of how unpleasant life is in the unified political unit of South Africa.Here we have a deracinated, captive minority of Whites who do all the technical work but are preyed upon ruthlessly - and they don’t fight back.
Isn’t it in the interests of the blacks and Mexicans to keep the ghost of the former USA (in a real meaningful sense), going and to keep the Whites in situ as wealth creators?
Wouldn’t they stamp on any secessionist sentiment (aided of course by their liberal political White friends who would do their bidding for them excellently).
Don’t Whites prove every possible way every possible day that they have no ‘race interest’, and don’t fight back?

Just further food for thought.

32 — mark wrote at 11:39 AM on January 3:

I wonder if this dissolution will occur as predicted; my main doubt concerns the lack of enforcement capability of the breakaway states. The flow of funds is as stated from the states to the federal government. Ethnography notwithstanding, a treasury army would be raised to enforce compliance with the federal government. There must be hidden variables which Panarin sees that I don’t; perhaps though he views the USA Civil War as the template upon which to predict. In that case, he is correct that the outcome would be a re-colonization of the country as Lincoln feared. However that situation is confounded by the much greater public awareness of the malicious WW2 nature of the European powers, and the Communist legacy of China and Russia, which would be heavily propandized to dispel any complacency about their good intentions if they conquered us. On the other hand, can we see a population held together by force of indebtedness? That is, we have to stay together to pay off the national debt…which we owe largely offshore elites and sovereign wealth funds of other countries? Not much of an ideal. If the sponsoring foreign powers would pledge to respect the ideals of the recolonized, to a degree such as we see in Hong Kong, it is possible dissolution would occur, even more so if increased prosperity and social peace were held out as the carrot.

33 — Richard wrote at 12:38 PM on January 3:

I would be willing to bet the CIA has similiar information about the breakup of America only they’re not releasing it to the public……and yet the immigration tsunami continues! I realized after the election that America was terminally ill. The black population is poised to double in 40 years and the hispanics have enough momentum from high births that curbing immigrants now won’t make much diffrence. My wife and I are moving overseas next year and retiring early (we’re in our 50s) and we are going to live better lives than we had living in third world America for the past 15 years. If it weren’t for the fact that I want my investment back from social security, I could care less what happens to the Disunited States of Diversity.

34 — Michael C. Scott wrote at 12:49 PM on January 3:

I read the article. Panarin has drawn the fracture lines completely incorrectly, and claims Russia will seize Alaska. Only if they want to get nuked will they seize Alaska.

They might BUY it; what’s 130-odd years of compounded interest on $7 million, plus the value of all the fixed property the US has built in Alaska? I’ll be the answer is “more than Russia can afford with oil stuck at $35 a barrel).

35 — Patrick2 wrote at 12:54 PM on January 3:

A model for the White condition of impending demise could be Elizebeth Kubler-Ross’ 5 stages of grief in dying: denial, anger, bargaining, depression, and acceptance, not necessarily in that order.

Most Whites seem stuck in denial stage, but that will change, and almost certainly will, the only question being if the change will come too late.

This author is in the bargaining stage. This accounts for, what seems to some of us, the unrealistic aspects of some of the details.

I suspect he is a White Nationalist in general, and a White Russian Nationalist in particular; he, for career reasons, needs to keep a ‘distance’. He does this in two ways (1) By examining the subject in a objective, analytic, professional, ‘no dog in the fight’ style. (2) making it about America, instead of about both America and Russia.

This gets intelligent people thinking about what before was unthinkable, plants a seed, provides a part of compartmentalized mind that can focus, be visionary, without being politically incorrect, before action is feasible. Otherwise, there’s no place for the White mind to go but sink in last two stages: depression and acceptance.

Acceptance (or resignation) is one way to get over depression. We’ve danced to the music, It’s time to play the fiddler! What a people we were in our time; we really accomplished some things in our time; but it’s time to pass the baton. It can give a person a feeling of peace when they feel that they’re not going to have to struggle anymore. So your wife had to leave for one of the colored men that had one of the few good jobs? She had to think of the children, didn’t she? Consolations come hard, but dear, on way down. And like the old fighter Beau Jack said after blowing his fortune on parties and women: “it beats not ever having been the champ.”

Whites can go this route; or take a stand at the stage of hard bargaining.

36 — Douglas wrote at 1:25 PM on January 3:

North Florida is far from black leaning.

There are militant black groups who already feel they deserve the south. This may be a big fight.

The problem for blacks is they are used to being taken care of. They do not have the knowledge to run much of the infrastructure needed to provide a good stable country themselves. They will have to exist by robbery and mayhem much the way they do in Africa. I say this reluctantly, because I wish it weren’t so.

I think the whites can win the south if they will band together. I have never seen whites willing to do this in the last couple of generations.

37 — Schoolteacher wrote at 1:38 PM on January 3:

Given that all the infrastructure, the railroads, freeways, pipelines, power grids, aqueducts and so forth, are designed, built, and maintained by Whites, many of the areas where the non-Whites have congregated are easily subject to siege warfare. Cut the aqueducts to southern California, and other southwestern areas dependent on water from places further north, and they will rapidly empty. Mexicans will be informed that they will not be allowed to move north, and after a few shootouts on the limited road networks of the desert, the rest of the unwanted will repatriate themselves, despite the impotent objections of the Mexican ruling class. Mexican drug lords vs Los Angeles street gangs, what sport!
The ghettos of the cities of the northeast are equally vulnerable. Cut the electricity, withdraw the fire departments, and they’ll burn themselves out. Can anyone really imagine hardy bands of saggy pants slum dwellers trekking through the Pennsylvania countryside in search of a better life? Masses of Blacks taking the initiative to improve their station by hard work? No, they will, like the residents of New Orleans, wait for the government to take care of their problems.
I am not arguing about the likelihood of these events, I think the Russian professor’s predictions are premature, but were the breakup to occur, the position of the minorities would be much worse than ours.

38 — Argonauticus wrote at 1:52 PM on January 3:

I hate to say it friends, but this is pure comic book stuff here… you really think people are going to get up off their obese tail ends, turn off the television, get out from inf ront of the computer, and pick up a weapon and go out and man the front lines if… and that’s one gigantic IF… the whole House of Cards comes tumbling down? Let’s get real… What? Only 1 in 3 Americans even vote in Presidential elections anymore… witness this last one. And yes, while “we” like to think we are more “conscious” or “prepared” or possibly consciously or subconsciously hopeful for such a scenario, I’m afraid we are truly the “minority” now in this country. If Whites will be the Minority in the world by 2050, we will be GONE … extinct… by 2050. After Obama & Company’s “Thought-Police” and “PC Diversity Officers” have rounded enough of us up, any rudiments of even this beginning here will be gone. And AR? Realistically, how much longer do we even have here before this website and all those like it are shut down?

Hate to say it friends, but this following scenario is much more likely.

http://www.ourcivilisation.com/usa/cede.htm

This is sadly the prophecy that more than likely realistically awaits us… witness Rhodesia…. witness South Africa… witness what already has occurred and is occurring in this country since the 1960s.

And if we choose not to “go along to get along?” Then pack your bags, sell the house, sell the car, and start making plans to emigrate to… where? Realistically, where do WE go? Diaspora… OUR Diaspora is coming friends. And where will we go?

Where can we go now?

39 — S.L. Cain wrote at 2:11 PM on January 3:

The good professor exhibits about as much understanding of the United States as does the average reporter for the The Economist (or for that matter The New York Times).

Tennessee allied with Massachusetts? California and Utah as brothers in arms? Cuban and Haitian south Florida together with white northern Alabama and Mississippi? Balderdash. This guy knows not of what he speaks.

I agree that a break-up is possible (on our present course, perhaps even likely), but not along the lines he has drawn. He obviously doesn’t know much about the U.S. It’s nice to know that Russia’s “experts” are as clueless as our own.

40 — Johnny English wrote at 2:43 PM on January 3:

This is fascinating to me, as a European whose continent (including the British Isles) is also undergoing rapid ethno-demographic and cultural/political restructuring (to state the situation as neutrally and unemotively as I can). It has been clear to me for some time that the United States would fragment along ethnic-cultural (and consequently politico-administrative) lines, and it has been broadly apparent to me what those lines would be.

With the greatest respect, I think that the eminent Russian professor is for the most part talking out of his hat. For me, so far, the shrewdest analysis and the likeliest prognosis has come in this thread from “Not Economically Viable” in a beautifully written and cogently argued post.

I acknowledge the well-presented (and evidently thought-through) caveats of Leon Haller, but I think he errs much too far in the opposite direction of speculative caution.

41 — WR the elder wrote at 4:22 PM on January 3:

Our economic problems are likely to get worse. The main result of the crash in the financial and auto markets has been to encourage the government to borrow even more money than before. Some day the Chinese will tire of lending to us. When that happens you can kiss low interest rates good bye. I’m surprised it hasn’t happened already. So while right now everybody is worried about deflation, I expect to see some very serious inflation in the next few years. Will any of this make the country break up? Probably not. There wasn’t much of a drive for secession during the Great Depression.

If the country does break up, it won’t be along the lines Panarin has drawn. It will be at a more local scale. The races are too interspersed for the large scale break up Panarin predicts to work.

42 — Hockaday wrote at 5:19 PM on January 3:

All these predictions and elaborate scenarios are very interesting. While you’re all at it, could you tell who will win the Super Bowl?

While we can’t foretell the geographic boundaries of a future breakup, I think we already know the character of any ethno-states, based on their relationship to the white race. The black needs us to babysit them, the mestizo need us to build forklifts for them to drive, and the Asian needs us to copy from.

A black ethno-state? We can all picture how that would turn out.

A mestizo? Somewhat more succesful, but sooner or later they would be back to sneaking into the white ethno-state (assuming one exists) to “better their lives.”

The Asian state would stand on its own, but how long till their superior numbers and long simmering resentment and envy drive them to an attempt to take us out once and for all?

43 — Anonymous wrote at 8:14 PM on January 3:

I only agree with Professor Panarin in that we will breakup but not in 2010. The only thing holding us together is the dwindling White majority and once that’s gone, all he** will break loose. The 2010 Census will come out with their usual baloney that the US is about 75-80% White and non-Hispanic Whites at 64%. If you peel off all the layers of deception about these statistics such as counting Middle Easterners as White, you’ll find the actual European population at about 59%. The actual White majority becomes a minority in about 20 years. Our country’s demise will follow sometime after that.

44 — Anonymous wrote at 8:33 PM on January 3:

Article: “But it’s his bleak forecast for the U.S. that is music to the ears of the Kremlin …”

Yeah, I’ll bet it’s music to the ears of the Kremlin; especially since they don’t want to hear the dissonance sounding from within their own country. That is: eastern Siberia is going to soon be annexed by China.

Better they project their pain onto the US so they don’t have to deal with their own break-up….not that there isn’t merit in the prediction that the USA will surly fracture along ethnic lines in the near future.

45 — EA Steve wrote at 9:26 PM on January 3:

“North Florida is far from black leaning.”

—Douglas

I think Blacks have the advantage with North Florida, for the following reasons:

1. The already unlikely breakup, will take at least 20 years to occur; and I see it as very unlikely, to begin with.

2. Blacks control the areas around Tallahassee and Jacksonville (demographically). With proper organization and mobilization, Whites will be trapped, with many major roads cut off.

3. Black birthrates are growing very rapidly, while Whites’ birthrates are barely growing. I believe Blacks are also moving to the southeast in very large numbers.

4. Black militias will control Southern Georgia, which has a higher altitude than Florida does.

46 — xela wrote at 10:18 PM on January 3:

I’m direly appalled by the comments of the AR readers. Two notes:
2. If Mr. Panarin really has access to KGB files, and he is, you rest assured that he knows much more and better than even the White House what is REALLY going on in the today’s murky waters of the USA society.
1. Why are you, the AR readers, wasting your energy arguing about possible boundaries and divisions? The point of the Panarin’s approach that the USA is falling apart as an independent and powerful state and who knows it even better if not you, the AR readers!?

This knowledgeable prediction is another token of the necessity to start uniting into a political movement to defend future of our children.

47 — Billy wrote at 11:51 PM on January 3:

I really do believe most people do live in a matrix. People talking about 30 and 40yrs from now before things really getting bad. Do any of you really understand what we are facing now? Let me say this one more time,the federal reserve is no part of the federal government,it answers to nobody except the Rothchilds. The break up would be opposite of their one world order plans. Count on a depression as soon as this year with many whites being slaughtered in metro area’s. When the banking cartel cuts the money off as they’re doing right now to even people with perfect credit is wtshtf. look back at the last depression and what caused it.The feds admitted they caused it.The difference then was we were over 90% white hence no riots. Look for these things to give them the opening to bring in the north American union and the amero,but first only the wise that have been preparing for this and are ready will only survive the blunt of it! I guess survivalist are just a bunch of nuts huh? Those that haven’t been preparing might still have time if they do their research now and get started now. You must leave the minority majority cities for places as far away from any big city as you can,you must have a water well and enough food to last atleast two years,these are just two of hundreds of things you will need,but the most important.Do the research before its to late. This could happen any day not years! Russia is more pro-white than the U.S. since they got rid of the banking cartels that controlled 90% of all the wealth and 90% of the media just as they do here.Most just think they are awakened!

48 — Anonymous wrote at 4:11 AM on January 4:

All the predictions I have read from credible sources for 2009 are saying that will enter a global economic depression that will clearly be seen by March. The official unemployment will be 25% and higher. There will be wide spread food riots, and public insurrections in the cities. and other places.
This depression will not be solved by throwing more printed
paper dollars. Japan, and China, are closing their doors in
purchasing US Treasury Bonds. This depression, there will be
no light at the end of the tunnel, and no end in our life time.
This is what the Russian Professor may have factored in when
he predicted the US collapse by 2010. This depression will effect
the Russians as it will effect the Americans. Except, it has been
generations since the Americans suffered real hard times in
the 1930’s, when most people were civil, dispute many loosing
everything. Russians have home gardens to grow food. Most
Americans do not.

49 — Anonymous wrote at 8:03 AM on January 4:

“I wonder if this dissolution will occur as predicted; my main doubt concerns the lack of enforcement capability of the breakaway states. The flow of funds is as stated from the states to the federal government. Ethnography notwithstanding, a treasury army would be raised to enforce compliance with the federal government.”
posted by mark

But you (and some others) are missing the point. In the face of a total collapse of central authority, the question becomes: WHAT federal government? This scenario may be impossible for most Americans to imagine, never having known anything but the unchallengeable power of Washington. But it has happened many times before in history as mighty empires have collapsed and vanished, when the unthinkable happened.

On the other hand, can we see a population held together by force of indebtedness? …which we owe largely to offshore elites and sovereign wealth funds of other countries? If the sponsoring foreign powers would pledge to respect … the re-colonized, … it is possible — even more so if increased prosperity and social peace were held out as the carrot.

Now that is an intriguing possibility! It (the subject of our enormous debt) could furnish a convenient excuse, a pretext, for their intervention — to protect their interests and their investment. After all, we have done it ourselves, in a number of places like Central America, so we could hardly complain when we get the same medicine that we have doled out to others. Or as “passerby” said, it could be more of a rescue, a humanitarian gesture to preserve order and keep our economy running, than a hostile take-over — a rescue that many might welcome. I also think (as another poster suggested) that Alaska might be mortgaged to pay off an over-populated power which is land-hungry and dollar-rich and ravenous for resources. (China being the perfect example.) It just may be that they would prefer to control us from afar, via the purse strings, than to get involved in our tangled inter-racial mess and by-then-chaotic politics.

Also, as HH says: ” this particular scenario seems exceedingly unlikely. Why would states - as they exist today - necessarily remain intact at all?” I agree with him that the map will have to re-drawn. (Will there even be states at all?) With or without a break-up, it is already time to reconsider states’ boundaries as they presently exist. Should tiny Rhode Island and Delaware remain states, while massive California remains only one? And what rationale would hold (white) northern Alabama and (black) southern Alabama together? Any future map that leaves the states’ present boundaries untouched is simply unrealistic.

Lastly, let me add that I could not possibly agree more with the prescient poster who wrote that: “The US is living on borrowed time, and is doing so as I write these words. Whatever the precise outcome, future historians will damn all presidents and all congresses after Eisenhower. ALL of them, without exception.

But I would have said “white historians”… that is, if we still have them. (Others, beholding the mess that America had become, might see things differently.)

50 — Kenelm Digby wrote at 8:40 AM on January 4:

“For me Elvis died when he joined the army”.

Such was John Lennon’s (the Oscar Wilde of our modern rock ‘n’ roll age), legendary and acerbic wit when pressed for a quote by a journalist on news of the death of Elvis Presley in 1977.
Perhaps the quote can be modified to say that in reality, the USA died after passage of Teddy Kennedy’s 1965 Immigration Act which for the first time permitted the mass immigration of non-Europeans into the uSA despite the wisdom of the founding fathers writing laws to prevent this catastrophe.

51 — Anonymous wrote at 9:13 AM on January 4:

There is no doubt that the USA will undergo difficulties and a reduction in its global position in the next few years. But the idea that the USA, with its vast nuclear arsenal and armed forces will be taken over by foreign powers in the foreseeable future is ridiculous.

52 — H. Dumpty wrote at 9:22 AM on January 4:

“A former KGB analyst”

This fellow’s judgments about how a citizenry responds were probably formed from the incredibly stifled Russian citizenry during Soviet days.

The American citizenry still has a ways to go before it reaches that state. I think.

53 — MB wrote at 11:01 AM on January 4:

Prof. Panarin is partially correct but is missing some key information in his analysis. The United States does seem to be headed on a collision course of secular ideologies, political division, racial segregation, and religious separation. His division of the States geographically are not well thought through. He obviously has not spent much time in Texas, the Midwest or Alaska. I have and and it is these states and sections of the country that give me some hope. First off, I lived in Alaska for ten years and it is more American than America is, or at least the way America used to be. Why do you think Sara Palin did so well. She obviously was not ready to be a national candidate but she still thinks, talks and lives her life like our grandparents did. She is traditional Americana. I have spent less time in Texas but remember they were part of Mexico before and they fought their way out and I don’t see them going back under the control of a weak and miserable country like Mexico. The Midwest, Indiana specifically, is so conservative, white, traditional American, they would die first before they allowed any other country to take them over. Oh by the way, the election in Indiana must have been rigged. No body and I mean nobody really voted for Obama. The only part of the state that really would have is Lake County and that is Gary Indiana (black), which is basically Chicago.

Prof. Panarin is looking in from the outside and his view is clouded by the liberal elites of academia and Washington. From that perfective Americans don’t really seem to care about America. And he would be correct. For over forty years now our Universities and most of our Federal Government has been brainwashed with Marxist Ideologies which they then use to turn around and brainwash yet another generation. But see, he is not in the living rooms of farmers in Indiana, or Oil workers in Alaska and Texas, or mothers taking there kids to church in any number of Midwest states. That is the real America. We are still here. We may be out numbered but we always have been. We are smarter, harder working, and more industrious than any other group of people to date on this earth.

America may come to an end as a political entity but the white European people that built this country will build again and they will still be the envy of the world.

54 — Anonymous wrote at 11:01 AM on January 4:

“Given that all the infrastructure, the railroads, freeways, pipelines, power grids, aqueducts and so forth, are designed, built, and maintained by Whites, many of the areas where the non-Whites have congregated are easily subject to siege warfare. Cut the aqueducts to southern California, and other southwestern areas dependent on water from places further north, and they will rapidly empty.” Posted by Schoolteacher.

Schoolteacher has the military situation pretty much outlined in general. The only thing I might add is that in addition to controlling strategic necessities, it has to be taken into consideration that whites are positioned to lay seige to practically all the urban centers around the country. This gives them a strategic and tactical advantage that is impossible to counter.

Whites are more numerous, but even if they weren’t far fewer personnel are necessary to keep people from coming and going in a particular geographic location, like a city, than it does to gain control by attacking and conquering. Food deliveries would stop. Store shelves would be empty. Water and electricity would be cut off. What little water that would be available would come from mostly unclean sources, allowing for the spread of cholera and other water borne diseases. Sporadic armed conflicts between racial factions would be literally everywhere. Some would try to flee out to the rural areas, looking to score on food, ammunition, vehicles, gasoline, etc, but they wouldn’t get very far for the most part. Those that did would be at a distinct disadvantage. They would involve, for the most part, mostly unarmed straggling hordes, not a unified force.

“If we enter a great depression anything is possible.”

That’s the whole crux of what those on here who have concluded, who are a bit more aware and informed. But break up is going to occur eventually, great depression or not. Where has Babylon existed for any appreciable length at any time in history?

“For all the serious and growing divisions which exist in our country, there is very little sentiment amongst ANY identifiable groups, beyond fringe elements, for ethnic partition (many of us fervently wish there were more such sentiment, but we’re not nearly there yet). There are far too many persons, not just white conservatives, who have strong stakes in the continued viability of the US - and very few who can plausibly envision how they might be bettered by partition.”

Good points, but your premise considers that the population will be given a choice as to how to react rationally, without allowing for the fact that chaotic situations often dictate what people MUST do in order to survive. I can’t think of a single conflict where the participants had any control over whether or not they might want to get involved. Too, lack of impulse control is rife among non-whites. Whites will be given the option of fighting or dying. It’s not hard to conclude what their choice might be. Also, there’s a VERY large segment of the white population that is just waiting for a breakup, as you mentioned.

To the few on here who think China will have a predatory advantage, I might point out that they’re having riots and protests right now, because they’ve been forced to shut down factories, due to the economic decline so far. Is there anyone who believes China will not implode to some extent if a depression occurs? I mean, the US in a depression will cause scarcity and considerable strife the world over.

Personally, I wouldn’t want to live in a country that has almost a billion and a half mouths to feed and water. Their advantage of having a mostly homogeneous society will be more than offset by the snowballing effect of mass rioting that will cause a far greater impact on their government when it involves hundreds of millions of people in one geographically contiguous location. In such a situation the Chinese government is less able to control the mobs than a smaller country with fewer people, especially considering the geographic size. Like the US, the Chinese government would be overwhelmed.

Many of us would rather prepare for the worst and hope for the best, but at this point the situation looks extremely grave.

We’ve already seen what kind of domino effect the financial collapse has wrought worldwide so far. Nobody has been exempted.


55 — flyingtiger wrote at 12:17 PM on January 4:

The United states has many problems- the bad econmy, an invasion of illegal immigrants, a foreign ruler (Starting on Jan 20). However we are in better shape than most nations. Canada and Mexico have many problems. I can see regions of Canada and Mexico breaking away and demanding to join the US. Will we let them? Time will tell.

56 — ghw wrote at 1:55 PM on January 4:

“…in reality, the USA died after passage of Teddy Kennedy’s 1965 Immigration Act which for the first time permitted the mass immigration of non-Europeans into the USA, despite the wisdom of the founding fathers writing laws to prevent this catastrophe.”
— K. Digby
……………………………

Agreed. But it goes still deeper, and well beyond the USA.

At about the same time, Europe was ceasing to reproduce itself, and so — even if the American immigration law had not been changed — there would be no more European immigrants to be had, as the ancient European countries themselves began, for the first time, the mass importation of immigrants of their own (“guest workers” as they were deceptively labeled back then, since the public was given to understand that they were just temporary). And next thing, by some remarkable international “coincidence”, Canada, Australia, etc. also changed their white-only immigration policies, while South Africa was brought under intense pressure to end apartheid. All of this occurring simultaneously! It is obvious there had to be some central direction.

No, the USA didn’t just die in 1965. Someone killed it.

57 — ghw wrote at 3:42 PM on January 4:

I’m direly appalled by the comments of the AR readers.
Posted by xela
…………………………

For myself, I am very highly impressed by the intelligent, knowledgeable, rational comments of the many posters above — much more so, in fact, than I am by the opinions of the professor in the article (some of whose opinions, as others have pointed out, seem to be pathetically ill informed for a so-called “America expert”). Still, he’s got the basic idea right. I particularly commend Schoolteacher, JH, HH, WR, Leon Haller, Memphomaniac, and Passerby — but all the rest as well. The comments are, as usual, more interesting than the article.

I must also scoff at his prediction of 2010 as the end of the USA. Unless there’s an unimaginable calamity, most Americans are simply not ready to think along these lines — not yet. But I would not laugh if he gave us only another 15 or 20 years of national existence before collapsing. Another generation, in other words: that seems realistic.

Several days ago, I sat next to a very highly educated French gentleman - a microbiologist - on a Flight back home from Paris. He went through an enormous amount of newspapers and magazines, in several languages, and we then got into a delightful conversation. He impressed me as very well informed about current news. (At least by standards of the mainstream media.) He is presently living in Boston and knows the USA fairly well. I cautiously inquired about his opinion of the political situation, both in America and in Europe. He is very confident (just like the French newspapers) that Obama will fix the economic and political mess, and that things are soon going to start getting better. Only better. Much better. The future, under Obama, is entirely rosy. One of the papers, Le Figaro, is predicting that Obama will inspire a renaissance! The rest of the French (and European) press is equally enthusiatic for the Obama presidency.

I told him that I thought they are in for an enormous disappointment. I mentioned, though only superficially, that many Americans disagree with this optimistic view, and that there are even some predicting the ultimate collapse and dissolution of the United States…. the unfixable decline of the economy, the collapse of the dollar, riots and civil discord. He was appalled! He had never heard of such a thing. (Well, any reader of the European press wouldn’t.)* When I went on to say that this discord could spread to Europe as well (or originate there) and that within 20 years or less there could be civil war on both sides of the Atlantic. He was utterly flabbergasted. It was unimaginable. Such a scenario was nowhere on the radar screen for those who believe in a wonderful, multicultural future. (Obviously, he’s not an Amren reader!) If I had known of it then, I would have mentioned that there is an article about this very thing in this week’s Wall Street Journal and I could have referred him to that. I had been very circumspect, actually, and I dropped the entire topic at that point. I had carefully said nothing about their (and our) immigrants, nor about any problems with religion or race. I felt I had said enough.

This was an Air France plane, after all, and I did know if any indiscreet comments (from me) regarding immigrants, race, etc. might still be subject to French law, even though we were nearing the North American coast. (I would suspect so.) I had, BTW, tried to access Amren while waiting in the Air France lounge at Paris, and got a message that this site was banned due to “Terrorism, Revisionism, Hate Speech”. I was not about to push my luck (and perhaps shock/offend someone) by saying too much on the plane. No wonder educated, intelligent Frenchmen like him are so completely unaware of anything but the orthodox point of view! They are kept inside a mental jail cell. But perhaps I got him thinking — just a bit.

* By way of explanation, regarding the controlled media, let me add that rioting had been going in Athens (and all over Greece) for AT LEAST 12 days (that I knew of) when the French TV seemed to tire of it and ceased reporting. I don’t know if the extent of this was reported in the US at all. The rioting was, at bottom, about the subject of “illegal immigrants”, although it was very hard to discern this, as you would have thought it was only about unruly “youths” on a rampage. There was also rioting in Paris on the Champs Elysées prior to Christmas. (I think this was the 13th and 14th.) Shops destroyed, cars burned, and massive police presence. I knew about this only because I was there. (As best I could ascertain, they were rioting in sympathy with the Greek riots and illegal aliens.) I later searched the Internet for more information about the Paris riots, and the BBC (which usually has good French coverage) — There was NOTHING!

58 — Paul wrote at 5:28 PM on January 4:

I think Panarin’s prediction is misguided, because he forgets that — unlike in the former ComBloc — America has not had anything resembling universal military conscription since WW2.

In places like the former USSR and the former Yugoslavia, a very large portion of the male population had at least rudimentary military training. (My friend’s Albanian wife can still field strip an SKS and says she fired an RPG7 as a “young pioneer” in highschool.) Plus, the control over heavy weapons was very lax.

Therefore, in Panarin’s world, when a country wants to break away, its people had access to the weaponry to do so and the know-how to use them.

In the US, however, only the “professional military caste” knows how to fight properly, and has access to heavy weapons. 90% of Americans can’t hit a pie-plate at 100 yards with a rifle, much less operate a tank or fire an artillery piece — should they even be able to get their hands on one.

Sorry, but I don’t see how a bunch of good ol’ boys or gangbangers with small arms could ever break up the US, no matter how motivated.

To sum up, America won’t break up unless the US Military decides to break it up.

THAT is another story….

59 — Mike wrote at 5:48 PM on January 4:

“And if we choose not to “go along to get along?” Then pack your bags, sell the house, sell the car, and start making plans to emigrate to… where? Realistically, where do WE go? Diaspora… OUR Diaspora is coming friends. And where will we go?

Where can we go now?”

Enough. If you truly believe we whites will become extinct, then why do you even bother reading this website? I’m tired of you people trying to inspire apathy amongst our own folk.

You are right that many whites have become lazy and apathetic, but aren’t the blacks and mestizos even fatter than we are? Are they more hard working and dedicated than we are? I doubt that. While mestizos have a reputation of being superior workers to us, you have to remember that Mexican culture has a naptime during the work day called a siesta! Hard working my butt.

And furthermore, when we hit this great depression, the worst amongst us will be forced to either shape up or simply die. The best in our ranks will thrive; a portion of the fat, lazy, and ignorant whites out there will shape up and survive, and the other portion will perish or be absorbed into the non whites out there. We WILL survive, one way or another.

60 — William Hendershot wrote at 7:22 PM on January 4:

It all depends on the economy. If there is a bad economy, a series of really bad natural disasters (hurricane, severe earthquake) followed by a well timed terrorist attack, a breakup could happen.

Predictions are easy to make, but nobody really knows especially regarding the economy. You can find a prominent economist to predict whatever outcome you wish. Having said that let me guess. Excepting the natural disaster scenario, we will limp along as is, and if in two years a conservative Congress is able to undo some of this socialist legislation (a big if) things will improve.- Until the Federal Government is unable to meet it’s Social Security obligations. This is absolutely going to happen. 15 years? Maybe 20 years, but it will happen. Then it will be hard to avoid a breakup, particularly if current demograhpic trends continue.

61 — Anonymous wrote at 8:36 PM on January 4:

European intellectuals, I suspect, get most of their information from American intellectuals. I once had a visiting professor from Germany. In a casual discussion, he said how it was unfair that registering to vote was so difficult in America. This was the 80s, in California. He wasn’t talking about literacy tests and grandfather clauses, he was simply convinced that the government placed a lot of hurdles in the path of the ordinary prospective voter. The next day I brought him a few voter registration cards I’d picked up at the post office and asked him if he’d like to vote, because nobody was going to stop him. He was flabbergasted, and said, “But I vas toldt by PROFESSORS!”
The Russian intelligence people have their biases, I’m sure, but, unlike my poor, deluded professor, at least they know that newspapers and officials cannot be taken at face value.

62 — Anonymous wrote at 8:51 PM on January 4:

About the federal government using funding as mandates - if states wised up they would refuse those federal “earmarks” and just live within their means. States would become more independent of Washington. The federal funding only entices states to actually spend more money than they would if they hadn’t received all of that federal money. How many bike paths and bogus museums do we need? Washington tries to addict the states to federal money.

63 — mark wrote at 9:17 PM on January 4:

Just to add: if we are in debt to the degree we are, why should we consider the dollar “our currency”? Its value is held up by the actions of countries which hold the denominated debts. I wonder if the creditors were to ask for the value back from our treasury by allowing their sovereign funds to purchase and control vast parcels of lands, would we not agree? But also as I said, if the taxpayers were to be required to either forever remit still more to the treasury ( so to service debt but not to service the citizenry )or voluntarily move to lands in North America “administered” (i.e., owned) by re-colonizers, who wouldn’t move? Especially if prosperity and social peace were promised?
The wild card is the US Military.

64 — Anonymous wrote at 10:50 PM on January 4:

It’s odd that this professor doesn’t have anything to say about racial and ethnic conflicts in Europe, some of which have been going on for several years now at a serious level, and they have nothing to do with their falling economic conditions.

In fact there have been few European countries spared protests, riots or racial clashes, but they consist of countries that do not have an ongoing inundation of third world peoples.

I realize he’s an America “expert,” but if he’s going to claim that America will be involved in civil war in 2010, surely it would be relevant to point out the entire Western World has the same “ethnic” problems, and some of them like Greece, France, Italy, Spain, the UK, the Netherlands, etc, are seeing active clashes right now. Surely, with all the volatility in Europe and their large African and Muslim populations, he doesn’t believe only the US will suffer from its diversity.

Also, 2010 might be a bit early to forecast a civil conflict in the US, as the main causative factor would more than likely be a collapse in the economy, and it takes time for austere conditions like that to reach a point of critical mass.

2012 maybe, if the situation deteriorates rapidly, beginning in late 2009.

The only thing I’m really certain of is that this country has deteriorated badly since Carter was in office, accelerated even more during Clinton’s rein, and now that a black socialist has control, with a majority of like-minded in Congress, it will degenerate far more quickly than ever.

To those that think we won’t have a break up of this country, because we didn’t have one in the last great depression, I have to respectfully say they are ignorant as to the conditions of the country then and now. It’s like comparing apples to oranges.

And to those who maintain we would never erupt into civil conflict, I would say that you are whistling as you walk past the graveyard. It is a diversion that keeps you from being afraid of the stark reality of the dangers of diversity.

65 — Anonymous wrote at 11:19 PM on January 4:

The United states has many problems- the bad econmy, an invasion of illegal immigrants, a foreign ruler (Starting on Jan 20). However we are in better shape than most nations. Canada and Mexico have many problems. I can see regions of Canada and Mexico breaking away and demanding to join the US. Will we let them? Time will tell.

Posted by flyingtiger at 12:17 PM on January 4

Yes, great idea! Please let the middle and western Canadian provinces come our way. We’ll take the resources of Alberta/Saskatchewan/British Columbia/and all the artic territory. We will let Europe have Ontario and everything East. Then decide Manitoba with a coin flip. If we win, all the greenies have to refrain from saving the Polar Bears.

66 — voter wrote at 11:52 PM on January 4:

“Schoolteacher has the military situation pretty much outlined in general. The only thing I might add is that …whites are positioned to lay seige to practically all the urban centers around the country. This gives them a strategic and tactical advantage that is impossible to counter.”
———
In other words, if faced with any urban rebellion, we would just force them back into the embrace of the USA again. That’s contrary to our own best interest! Actually, what we SHOULD do (or should want to) is to let them go, and be rid of them at last. Freeing ourselves from this deadly millstone would be the best thing that could happen. But, as usual, our politicians may be too stupid to see it. They will be dedicated to preserving the USA and the status quo at all costs.

67 — Anonymous wrote at 4:24 AM on January 5:

Texas is so Mexicanized already that it is startling for anyone who has been away for a few years and returns to visit. Tell me again that White Texans are uniquely racially conscious. It just isn’t so. Most Texans are as brainwashed as Whites in any other state, if not more so, due to their frequent Mexican exposure.

There is a HUGE amount of dating and marriage between White Texans and Mexican Americans (which of course means no White babies from those unions but many Mestizo babies). The point is that Mexican Americans are not identical to European Americans and they are creating a different Texas than European Americans would create. Goodbye, Texas; hello, Mexico Del Norte.

68 — Fed Up wrote at 7:44 AM on January 5:

>>>Texas as part of or under the influence of Mexico? I don’t think so.

How RIGHT you are, friend… There would be one hell of a bloodbath, should Mexicans try to take our state from us. With very little of that spilled blood being that of us rightful White owners of this state. Draw your own conclusions… but many of us will fight to the death… with the exchange ratio being a MINIMUM of 25-to-1. White men, their efforts, sacrifice, intelligence and drive made Texas what it is. We are NOT about to meekly surrender it to those primitive mestizos. Who would be considered fair game in the event of a civil war or break-up. For the record, Texas DOES have the legal right to secede from the Union, or voluntarily dissolve into four or five smaller states. The latter might not be a bad idea, giving Texas MORE voting power in Congress.

I have faith in the general American public. I doubt very many would cheerfully see our nation dissolved without a bloody fight. Nor would we meekly give up vast American territories to undeserving invaders… regardless of what country they’re from.

69 — Anonymous wrote at 9:28 AM on January 5:


An excellent bunch of comments, everyone. (Well, most of you, anyhow.) I can add little to the discussion at this point, other than to second the emotion that, yes, the US would appear to be irrevocably headed for a breakup; but no, it won’t be as early as 2010. And no, it won’t follow the bizarre, almost arbitary divisions predicted by Prof. Panarin.

I’d like to supplement what previous poster GHW wrote about the latest round of… uh… “civil unrest” in France:


There was also rioting in Paris on the Champs Elysées prior to Christmas. (I think this was the 13th and 14th.) Shops destroyed, cars burned, and massive police presence. I knew about this only because I was there. (As best I could ascertain, they were rioting in sympathy with the Greek riots and illegal aliens.) I later searched the Internet for more information about the Paris riots, and the BBC (which usually has good French coverage) — There was NOTHING!

Posted by ghw at 3:42 PM on January 4


I hadn’t heard of these new disturbances myself — but today (Jan. 5) on the British National Party’s site (bnp.org.uk) they report on rioting and the burning of 1100+ cars in Paris on New Year’s Eve:


http://bnp.org.uk/2009/01/immigrants-in-france-see-in-new-year-with-1147-car-arsons/


One might think that spending New Year’s Eve in Paris would be one of the most enjoyable and romantic things in the world. And I’m sure it used to be — back when Paris was WHITE.

70 — Anonymous wrote at 10:56 AM on January 5:

“For the record, Texas DOES have the legal right to secede from the Union, or voluntarily dissolve into four or five smaller states.”

Correct. That was a condition of Texas’ admittance to the Union. However, that former “right” was militarily denied them in 1965, so it is now null, void and irrelevant… as well as uninforcible.

71 — ghw wrote at 12:29 PM on January 5:


I hadn’t heard of these new disturbances myself — but today (Jan. 5) on the British National Party’s site (bnp.org.uk) they report on rioting and the burning of 1100+ cars in Paris on New Year’s Eve.
One might think that spending New Year’s Eve in Paris would be one of the most enjoyable and romantic things in the world. And I’m sure it used to be — back when Paris was WHITE.
Posted at 9:28 AM

……………………….
Thank you. This is complete news to me. I was in Paris on New Years Eve and knew nothing about this. I saw nothing of it on TV (which I had on) and nothing in the newspapers the following day. Only now (the 5th) and back in the USA, am I learning of it — and, bizarrely, via Britain and the BNP! (I also find something about this on a Belgian site.) Quite amazing, is it not?
http://www.brusselsjournal.com/node/3723

But these latest riots - unlike the ones before Christmas which were RIGHT ON the Ave. Champs Elysées in the heart of Paris - were in the northern, immigrant suburbs [read Africans and Arabs], where no tourists are ever likely to go, except speeding through on the train to the airport.

For New Year’s, Paris does fill up with tourists from all over Europe (I saw buses from Warsaw, Dresden, Madrid). But I think that they (just like me) would have been unaware of these disturbances in the suburbs, so their enjoyment of the holiday would have been unmarred and they would have gone home with wonderful memories, completely unaware of any unpleasantness.

I suspect there is a different level of official tolerance, according to where this type of thing happens. As all who read Amren know, there are now certain unofficial no-go zones where the police have all but given up and where the burning of cars has been downgraded to merely a minor crime. But those that took place on the Champs Elysées - in Paris’ most elegant district, full of expensive shops, palatial residences, and foreign embassies (I think they were rioting in front of the Greek Embassy, or trying to get to it) - received a massive police presence and were apparently quickly controlled (although they broke out again the next night). Unlike the northern suburbs, these were obviously not people who lived in the neighborhood.

When you think about it, the one common denominator that both riots shared was that they were essentially about or by immigrants/illegal aliens. The central Paris rioters appeared to be a mix of radical white students and dusky aliens —- the usual combo. In the suburbs, they would have been just aliens; any white student would be unwise to go there at night.

72 — sam d wrote at 12:31 PM on January 5:

“To sum up, America won’t break up unless the US Military decides to break it up. THAT is another story….”
Posted by Paul at 5:28 PM on January 4

No, Paul, in fact that’s a very important ingredient in the present situaion, because, as Chittum says, the police and military will break along lines of race and ethnicity.
Chittum was a veteran of the Vietnam war, the Rhodesian war, and the Balkans war, where ethnic and/or racial conflicts were the order of the day.

With all due respect, Paul, read Chittum and then see if you are with the same point of view.

It’s free at this far right web site. I don’t agree with the philosophy of the site, but you can’t beat being able to read the book free of charge.

www.resist.com/CWII.pdf

73 — Southern Hoosier wrote at 12:33 PM on January 5:

Being from South Carolina, I’m not sure which is worse, being lumped in with a bunch on New England liberal states or being lumped in with Mexico.

If this was to happen, I can see the Confederate State getting back together, with the exception of Texas. Probably the border states of Kentucky and Missouri, but not Maryland. I would also guess southern parts of Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, with parts of Pennsylvania joining as well.

74 — ghw wrote at 12:43 PM on January 5:

“New Year’s Eve in Paris would be one of the most enjoyable and romantic things in the world. And I’m sure it used to be — back when Paris was WHITE. “

The center of Paris is still white, beautiful, and (I believe) quite safe. But Paris is now encircled by a dark ring of ever-growing Third World suburbs. American-style alienation, rap, hip-hop, black movies and fashions, and gangsta culture are extremely popular there. Add to this mix the aggressive presence of militant Islam. The actual immigrants, I think, most of them, are rather docile and just glad to be there. But their children, born in France and growing up in this festering culture of anger and alienation, and a nursing raging sense of deprivation, are going to be another story. Just give them a few more years!

And not just France. Doubtless the same holds true of Sweden, Britain, and every other European country. They thought they were wiser about race relations and were going to show America how to do it right. How pathetic.

75 — ice wrote at 12:50 PM on January 5:

Posted by at 11:01 AM on January 4 “Is there anyone who believes China will not implode to some extent if a depression occurs? I mean, the US in a depression will cause scarcity and considerable strife the world over.”

That’s a point I’m surprised nobody else has raised, because all we’ve heard and read bemoans the fact that the US is so much the underpinnings of the entire global economy the reverberations from a US economic catastrophe would send the entire world into financial collapse, so I would say the US has plenty of time to lick it’s wounds and heal and regroup in another form while the rest of the world, at a minimum, is at least trying to regroup and avoid any costly conflicts.

Yes, 2010 seems a bit early, almost every war that occurred in fairly recent times was unexpected and seemed to come from nowhere, so I would rul it out if I wanted to be fully prepared.,

I agree with the above post that thinks 2012would be closer to reality…….but only if the economy worsens.

Otherwise, I’d opt for about twenty years down the road when the country has deteriorated further from third world hordes, and it will be the hordes….mostly blacks and mestizos…..who will cause the situation to erupt…….not whites.


76 — Anonymous wrote at 1:02 PM on January 5:

“European intellectuals, I suspect, get most of their information from American intellectuals. I once had a visiting professor from Germany. In a casual discussion, he said how it was unfair that registering to vote was so difficult in America. This was the 80s, in California. “

In the 1980’s, in California, 3 of my sisters friends, 1 a German and 2 English accompanied her to our city hall when she went to register to vote. Flabbergasted that neither ID nor proof of residence was required to register to vote, the European girls registered to vote the next day.

The 3 Europeans received mail in ballots and all the voting information at their home addresses in Europe during the next election.

Every government office has voter registration forms. Every public library has the forms. Many churches have the forms in the lobby alongside the church periodicals. Almost all the high schools have the forms for the convenience of students who turn 18. Police stations have the forms. The forms are everywhere.

And for several months before elections it is difficult to avoid the people registering voters that appear in every parking lot and bus stop.

77 — Silvia wrote at 1:14 PM on January 5:

Hey Igor, I predict a Russian demise WAY, WAY before the “fall” of the US.
Pathetic. I know that the saying “you’re jus’jellus” sounds superficial but it is true - they are jealous. And also, I wish this guy would enlighten us all as to how well things are in Russia for the average russian.

78 — Anonymous wrote at 1:28 PM on January 5:

Fed Up, you may want to start the “blood bath” A.S.A.P. because your state and mine, (New York), are so knee deep in illegal invaders now, there is no turning back. Our country is being taken right now, but in a very subtle way. We have a federal government that is unwilling to seriously enforce our immigration laws, and in many ways enabling these people. As we are all aware, the Hispanics are becoming a major voting block, once they have the politicians we are doomed.

79 — Northern most Idaho wrote at 1:46 PM on January 5:

He’s right about the Balkanization wrong about some particulars. The South, including Texas is unlikely to go easily to Mexico. Southern Texas would fold quickly, but not the rest there would be much Mexican blood shed. Eastern Washington state and Northern and mid-Idaho would stay White majority and in the Montana Camp Of Saints.
California will be a battleground between Asians and Mexicans, Mexicans will win L.A. down. Mexificating the Whites for generations has been the goal there—(I know as a Native Cali myself and have seen her fellow Cali uncles, aunts, cousins, nieces— all Liberal Multi-cultis who have lived/married Mexis) it’s hopeless there.
Yankee/ N. East/New England will be overrun with escapee Blacks and other non-Whites. Not a pretty picture.
Altogether, The Northern tier states— starting with Eastern washington to the Dakotas and including Wyoming— will be the place to ride it out and thrive in a White Free State.

80 — Anonymous wrote at 2:49 PM on January 5:

Everybody seems to think that the country’s going to collapse in the near future, but if you ask me, it’s already happened. The United States no longer exists. It still has its outward form, the same institutions and so on, but that doesn’t mean anything. The United States was a white, western, democratic republic with a limited central government and a free-market capitalist economy. That country’s gone. It’s finished. We’re now living in a bankrupt multicultural empire with a socialist economy, a black President and a centralized, all-powerful government that was captured by foreign interests, corporations and corrupt politicians a long time ago. I don’t know what to call this territory we’re living in now, but it definitely isn’t the United States. In some ways, it’s similar to Rome under the Visigoths.

People seem to think that social collapse is something dramatic and sudden with riots and civil war and so on, but collapse is usually just a gradual transformation that takes decades, if not centuries, to unfold. The fall of the USSR was a special case that happened very suddenly, but the Soviet Union fell apart the way it did because it was always an artificial state made up of a lot of different countries held together with force. In our case, the collapse has been more of a steady decline. It’s been playing out for over a century and the deterioration really started to accelerate back in the Sixties and Seventies. There have been dramatic incidents like 9/11 associated with the decline, but those were just incidents. As for the country breaking up along racial or economic lines, I don’t think that’s going to happen. The crisis is making the central government stronger, not weaker, and the worse it gets, the more they’re going to clamp down. Anything could happen, of course, but I expect that the next few centuries will see a succession of different factions seize control of the government, trying and failing to restore the country to its former glory even as the real centers of power shift to the Far East.

None of this is new. History’s the story of the rise and fall of these transient combinations we call civilizations and we just happen to be living through one of the down cycles. Something new will emerge on the North American continent, but there’s no telling what it will be and we’re not likely to see it happen. These things take centuries to play out. When the Western Roman Empire collapsed, it took over fifteen-hundred years of almost constant war and chaos before the first outlines of modern Europe started to appear. The white race may or may not survive the next cycle. That remains to be seen. At the moment, we seem to be locked on auto-destruct, but the survival instinct is genetic and can’t be completely obliterated no matter how hard we try. Western Civilization is an idea and as long as the idea is still alive, it can always be revived.

81 — Warren Bonesteel wrote at 3:46 PM on January 5:

Before you dismiss him out of hand, you may want to do some research.

For example, see:
Empires with Expiration Dates, By Niall Ferguson from the history department at Harvard.

THE RISE AND FALL OF CIVILIZATIONS, December 2001, By Joseph M. Miller, Daan Joubert, Marion Butler. .A work by a retired member of the board of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, a physcist and a CFO.

World Trade Order and the Beginning of the Decline of the Washington Consensus, by Howard Wachtel.

‘Beyond the Nation-State: National Identity and Citizenship in a Multicultural Society - A Response to Rex’ by Gerard Delanty, Department of Sociology, University of Liverpool.

‘Decentralization, Corruption And Government Accountability: An Overview’ Pranab Bardhan and Dilip Mookherjee. Economics department at Berkley.

‘THE THIRD WAVE’ By Alvin Toffler.
‘Eight hundred years of financial folly’ by Carmen M. Reinhart.
‘The Past and Future of America’s Economy: Long Waves of Innovation that Drive Cycles of Growth’ (Edward Elgar, 2005)
‘Property Rights, Land Reforms, and the Hidden Architecture of Capitalism’ By Craig J. Richardson.

google:
‘Endogenous innovation waves and economic growth’
“Social Wave-Front Analysis”
‘Long Waves of Innovation’
‘Long Waves in Economics and International Politics’
‘Elliot Waves and Civilization.’
‘THE BIG PICTURE: RESOURCE COLLAPSE’

82 — Anonymous wrote at 6:24 PM on January 5:

300 determined Greek Spartans (whites) slew thousands of invading Persians (non-whites) without working up a sweat. American (whites) can do much better than that against invading Mexicans (non-whites) because we aren’t backed into a corner and can pick when and where we will attack…

83 — Anonymous wrote at 6:32 PM on January 5:

The Central North American Republic states are far too conservative to live under Canada’s socialist anti-gun and anti-freedom government. If Canada made a move on those states it would be defeated and conquered and all their resources would be owned and controlled by the Central North American Republic states…

84 — Anonymous wrote at 6:37 PM on January 5:

Where do people come up with such stupid notions? The last time someone tried to break up our union it sparked the Civil War. If someone were to attempt it again it would spark another one. I believe this Russian loon has imbibed a little too much vodka…

85 — Anonymous wrote at 7:33 PM on January 5:

Bottom line: It takes an element of control, self-restraint, and high intelligence to live in freedom, trusting of others. Blacks, Hispanics, Muslims, and sorted mongrels do not have any of those qualities.

86 — Whiteplight wrote at 10:00 PM on January 5:

“While I don’t agree with the map (I can ill imagine Kentucky allying with Vermont, and New Mexico not in the same league as California), anyone with half a brain that can read Gibbon’s “Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire” can predict this.”

Posted by Question Diversity at 5:29 PM on January 2

> They could also read there how much Christianity led to that fall. Islam seems to be taking the role Christianity did from the fourth century on in Europe until the Renaissance. But more to the point, the entire world would crash too. Russia would not be in a power position if the US is breaking up. Just as China is beginning to hurt because they are completely dependent on Western consumption, China, Russia, and even the Islamic nations would fall too. In such a situation, we might be able to realize our favorite all White survival scenarios, but it would be a hard life, devoid of all the sports watching, bass fishing, hunting from RVs, beer swilling culture that seems to dominate the White American male culture. IT WILL BE HARSH AND WILL REQUIRE HARD PEOPLE - BODY AND MIND.

Take a deep breath before you take that plunge from your computer command chair.

87 — Schoolteacher wrote at 11:57 PM on January 5:

Whiteplight at 10:00 PM has pointed out something worth remembering. Any restoration of White civilization will be accompanied by a great deal of economic turmoil. Many posters are armed and willing to defend against invaders, but when the enemy is gone, much of this country will be in physical ruin and the dollar will be worthless. There will be a great need for builders and repairers, and not much for financial advisors and benefits administrators. Clearly, surviving leftists will be available for some servile labor, but as we all know, relying on others to do our own dirty work is a prescription for dependence. How many WN are skilled at a trade? When the Mexicans who have stolen our jobs are made to give them back, are there still enough Whites who have the know-how and the grit to lay pipe and pour cement?
I strongly advise all you well-armed readers to get over to your local trade school and pick up some useful hobby, carpentry, welding, or transmission repair. It may not matter much since the knowledge gained from one trade is often transferable to another. I learned a little about cabinetmaking from my father, which has made it possible to pick up carpentry and roofing on my own. I don’t wish to be ruled by some useless typist behind a desk, whether or not their a WN. And I’m not willing to sweat away my dotage doing honest labor, in or out of a classroom, while some racially aware White spends his time as a community organizer or gauliter or commissar.

88 — H. Dumpty wrote at 2:20 AM on January 6:

“Sea to shining Sea”. Anything less is esthetically unacceptable, and also means we lost.

89 — ghw wrote at 3:10 AM on January 6:

“more to the point, the entire world would crash too. Russia would not be in a power position if the US is breaking up. Just as China is beginning to hurt because they are completely dependent on Western consumption, China, Russia, and even the Islamic nations would fall too. — Whiteplight
……………………
Yes. Exactly. We should not (like this Russian “expert”) imagine the USA falling apart while the rest of the world’s countries - even Mexico and Canada - calmly sit there, unaffected, and wait to pick at our bones.

If the USA fails, there will be a domino effect, with massive repercussions around the world. (Does he think Russia will be exempt?) Canada will quickly crumble too, if not even sooner, and Mexico (without US remittances or tourism) will degenerate into a state of chaos. I would expect Europe also to follow in our tracks (if not to lead the way) in about another generation (15-30 years). As for Africa, without whites serving as the world’s policemen, mentors, and providers (who will feed them? who will discipline them?), that entire continent will be aflame. Just look at the turmoil and violence that exist there now. Without food, aid, or any foreign assistance whatsoever, and with a much larger population left to their own devices, it will be a hundred times worse!

Asia would seem to come out the best; but who knows? And South America will be up for grabs. The collapse of order would provide an opportunity for all parties to settle old disputes and grudges. The Asian nations at least will be intact and not encumbered by our fatal flirtation with diversity and multiracialism Not having followed the West’s catastrophic experiment, they will be in a better position to pick up the pieces and preserve their own civilization.

As with other Dark Ages (if it gets that bad), a new world will eventually emerge from all of this. But it will not be the same world as the old one. Nothing will never be the same again.

90 — browser wrote at 6:45 AM on January 6:

“Texas is so Mexicanized already that it is startling for anyone who has been away for a few years and returns to visit. Tell me again that White Texans are uniquely racially conscious. It just isn’t so. Most Texans are as brainwashed as Whites in any other state, if not more so, due to their frequent Mexican exposure.”
4:24AM
— — — — — —
I guess the Bush family is a good example of that. Yes, I must agree with you. I lived in Texas briefly as a teenager (and that was long ago). Like you, when I go back there now, I am amazed at the extraordinary changes that have taken place. Back then, inter-racial dating and marriage were unacceptable, and families with mulatto babies were not seen. Now, you see these things everywhere, and no one blinks an eye.

91 — Kenelm Digby wrote at 7:29 AM on January 6:

A point that is too often overlooked is that past mid-century the entity known as the USA will be overwhelmingly non-White (this is not pure speculation but a scientific fact based on demographic projections).
Taken as granted the USA will still have the World’s most formidable nuclear arsenal plus a fearsome conventional war machine.These weapons will, of course, be in the hands of a people, government and president of a nation that couldn’t give a damn about White European civilisation or White European people and might, in fact, have an actual and conditioned hatred for everything ‘White’.
Therefore the future prospects for the few remaining states that actually manage to stay White European at that time (France and England are write-offs) is very grim.
Perhaps as things pan out, the Asian nations of the far East might respect the few White Europeans more and defend them from a hostile USA.
Who knows?

92 — Anonymous wrote at 12:45 PM on January 6:

That one person said this should,t be on amren but look at all the comments on this story. It belongs here. When I come here I like to notice how some storys get a lot of comments and some hardly any. I was watching armegeddon week this week on the history channel and prophets on there are predicting the end of the whole world Dec 21st 2012. I agree with the statement America was killed in 1965, but not just by the one person. He had to have other people voting his way. Emmanuel cellar and Jakob Javits have also been mentioned on this site. Look them up on the internet and see what their writings are. There was one preacher (I believe it was Billy Grahm, correct me if I,m wrong) who Said That if God didn,t destroy America, he would have to apologize to Sodom and Gomorrah. I apologize if it wasn,t mr. Grahm but i do remember the saying.

93 — ghw wrote at 1:48 PM on January 6:

Whiteplight at 10:00 PM has pointed out something worth remembering. Any restoration of White civilization will be accompanied by a great deal of turmoil. Many posters are armed…but when the enemy is gone, much of this country will be in physical ruin and the dollar will be worthless. There will be a great need for builders and repairers… surviving leftists will be available for some servile labor, but as we all know, relying on others to do our own dirty work is a prescription for dependence.

How many WN are skilled at a trade? … are there still enough Whites who have the know-how and the grit to lay pipe and pour cement? I strongly advise all you well-armed readers to get over to your local trade school and pick up some useful hobby, carpentry, welding, or transmission repair.
Schoolteacher
………………………….

Excellent advice from Schoolteacher! But “surviving leftists” are not likely to be useful at any sort of labor. That’s not their field, their “métier”! And, just by the nature of things, any “restoration of civilization” will never reproduce an exact copy of what went before. You can’t reproduce the past. (But then we wouldn’t really want an exact copy, including all our flaws and mistakes, would we?)

Also, I’m concerned about the general population and their prevailing mentality. I haven’t seen this addressed. After being subjected to 2 or 3 generations of anti-racist, egalitarian, race-mixing propaganda, you’re not going to eradicate that conditioning entirely, not overnight. They will still remain fundamentally brainwashed in their ways of thinking and will be prone to go right back, albeit unconsciously, and repeat the same fatal mistakes again. When starving bands of ghetto refugees appear at the border, begging (or demanding) help, will they be taken in? — only to repeat the same cycle all over again? Will our people have learned their lesson?

Certainly, we have learned this much from history: that people don’t learn much from history!

94 — sofita wrote at 2:20 PM on January 6:

The Russians do not wish us well. They are the only white country in the world that truly makes me question universal white propensity to democracy, human rights, and peace. They have no sense of racial solidarity at all.

95 — RealityCheck wrote at 3:06 PM on January 6:

I hate to say this … but … Texas is NO longer the romantic image of what you might think it is. Sure in many sparse counties and towns you’ll find those rustic, hardy, self-reliant, salt of the Earth people, but in the main cities and in decent-sized towns it’s a different story.

96 — Anonymous wrote at 4:52 PM on January 6:

It’s interesting that it takes a foreigner to be listened to. Many people in this country have been talking about Balkanization for years now, but I guess they’ve not been taken as seriously as this professor because they really just dance around the subject with euphemisms, afraid to come right out and refer to civil conflict instead of “clashes,” Balkanization,” etc (Chittum is the exception.)

Pundits here are afraid to mention our race problems, and they avoid talk of civil conflict. For good reason, I guess, also, because by mentioning those taboo subjects they could be burned at the stake.

97 — Anonymous wrote at 7:14 PM on January 6:

“The Russians do not wish us well. They have no sense of racial solidarity at all. “
Posted by sofita

Well, do we? They couldn’t be worse about this than we are!

98 — Anonymous wrote at 7:19 PM on January 6:

…”it takes a foreigner to be listened to. Pundits here are afraid to mention race problems, and they avoid talk of civil conflict. I guess because by mentioning those taboo subjects they could be burned at the stake.”
~~~~~~~~~
Or, at the least, they would not get printed in the Wall Street Journal.

99 — Schoolteacher wrote at 7:21 PM on January 6:

gwh at 1:48 PM on January 6 said “surviving leftists are not likely to be useful at any sort of labor.” Well, as Saint Paul said, “If they will not work, let them not eat.” (2nd letter to the Thessalonians, Chp 3, verse 10) Paul was addressing the matter of effete Christians who imagined themselves to be too spiritually advanced to get their hands dirty, very much like today’s liberals. Personally, I have no doubt that, given sufficient motivation, four psychologists and six lawyers together could do the work of three honest White men. I say let’s give them a chance.

100 — Anonymous wrote at 8:20 PM on January 6:

“300 determined Greek Spartans (whites) slew thousands of invading Persians (non-whites) without working up a sweat. American (whites) can do much better than that against invading Mexicans (non-whites) because we aren’t backed into a corner and can pick when and where we will attack… Posted by at 6:24 PM on January 5”

Have you ever actually seen a Persian or Iranian????? Surely in the 30 years since the Iranian revolution against the Shah you have seen Iranian officials and spokesmen on TV and in magazines.

Persians and Iranians are as white as the Irish and Germans. Furthermore, their origin is in Russia, Ukraine and the Crimea from whence they migrated across the black sea and western Asia to Iran.

As far as the Sparta vs Persia battle goes, don’t forget that the King of Sparta and the governments of Sparta, Athens and the entire Greek federation was against Persia and on the side of the Spartan soldiers and the Greek people.

In the America vs Mexico, Asia and Africa confrontation, our entire government and both business and intellectual elites are against America and favor S. America, Asia and Africa.

How well do you think the 300 Spartans would have done if the King of Sparta and the other Greek Kings and leadership favored the Persian invasion?

The Greeks sent the 300 Spartans to defend the border against the Persian invaders. Our government refuses to defend our borders against the immigrant invasion. Our Judges and public officials do everything they can to prevent deportation of the most vicious of criminal immigrants. Our Justice department defends illegal immigrants.

The situation is not the same.

And once and for all, Whites live in many more areas of the world than North Western Europe. The president of Iran, Ahemajj whatever happens to have BROWN HAIR and fair skin.

101 — danjack wrote at 2:33 AM on January 7:

poster above kenelm digby had it almost right, america did die with the 1965 ted kennedy sponsored immigration bill, but one other event was equally responsible, that is the loss of j edgar hoover, the best and last watchdog of the american way of life.

102 — Anonymous wrote at 10:59 AM on January 7:

I live in Texas and it is true that the old Texas died. Texas’ big cities have all been invaded by outsiders - whites from liberal places like CA and NY, mestizos, muslims, pakis and other asian types. Although the kids still pledge allegiance to the TX flag at school, it is an empty gesture. TX will go left as these invaders are presently destroying the old southern/frontier culture of TX.

103 — Schoolteacher wrote at 12:31 PM on January 7:

8:20 PM on January 6: Iranians are NOT as White as irish and Germans. I once had the misfortune to live amongst a lot of them, in the 1980s. When I first noticed them, speeding about recklessly endangering pedestrians and other drivers, I asked myself, Who ARE these Mexicans? Yes, some of them could pass for French, as in any group there is a spectrum of diversity, but most of them are unmistakably from the wrong side of the planet.

104 — Bill wrote at 1:30 PM on January 7:

“The Russians do not wish us well. They are the only white country in the world that truly makes me question universal white propensity to democracy, human rights, and peace. They have no sense of racial solidarity at all.Posted by sofita at 2:20 PM on January 6”

Hello,

I worked with the Russian Army in 1961-1963, guarding a border. I was in the US Army on my side, and Russians were on their side. In any interaction, the Russians were gentlemen. I could communicate with the Russians because the Russian brain is wired like mine.

Check out Wikipedia on the Russian racial makeup. The Russians have run out almost all of the Africans from Russia.

The Russians will side with the Caucasians in this country in any civil war, because the Russians don’t want the Africans to have the control of thousands of nuclear and other powerful weapons.


105 — browser wrote at 1:53 PM on January 7:

“300 determined Greek Spartans slew thousands of invading Persians without working up a sweat.”
— — — — — —
Without a sweat? Well, not quite that simple. They were all slain to the last man.

But they were patriots and their sacrifice was for a clear cause.

But as poster 8:20PM points out, very significantly, they were not undermined by their own politicians at home who were rooting for the other side and slipping Persians in on the sly. Nor were strategic Greek positions filled with Persians holding (technically) “Greek” citizenship. Nor dual citizenship. The Spartans were Greeks fighting for Greece. They knew who they were. The issues were clear-cut. But we have been riddled with so many aliens and undermined from within to the point where we don’t know who is who. They were defending their borders and territory. Are our troops defending ours?

Quite a difference indeed!

106 — Michael C. Scott wrote at 3:02 PM on January 7:

Alaska isn’t going back to Russia without a nuclear war. Panarin is mistaken.

The United States probably will break up in the early twenty-teens. As a CW-2 head, I have to agree with Mr. Chittum’s prediction of “mountains of bodies and rivers of blood.”

I also think a re-reconquista will occur afterward. “From sea to shining sea” is a polite term for “Lebensraum”, but the emotions programmed into white men remain the same.

107 — Anonymous wrote at 4:14 PM on January 7:

“Texas as part of or under the influence of Mexico? I don’t think so. How RIGHT you are, friend… There would be one hell of a bloodbath, should Mexicans try to take our state from us. With very little of that spilled blood being that of us rightful White owners of this state. Draw your own conclusions… but many of us will fight to the death… with the exchange ratio being a MINIMUM of 25-to-1. White men, their efforts, sacrifice, intelligence and drive made Texas what it is. We are NOT about to meekly surrender it to those primitive mestizos.”

Reality check. You Texans have already surrendered to Mexico via your elites who imported them. And nary a shot was fired.

108 — A Swain wrote at 8:24 PM on January 7:

As America’s prosperity gradually wanes and the continent can no longer deliver the fruits of a civilization white people themselves created and rightfully reaped the benefits of before their having been materially and culturally disenfranchised and ethnically disembowelled by the Eternal via an ideology that gave birth to that most unnatural of social constructs known as multi-culturalism, (multi-racalism in disguise), the hemorrhaging of America’s white population will escalate outwards and into regions such as Northern/Western Europe, Russia and her outlying territories, Northern/Western Canada, to a lesser extent, a few South American countries like Chile maybe and, of course, Australia and Tasmania etc, in search of ethnic survival and economic stability.

In that sense, America will have indeed collapsed and will have also ceased to exist.

Unfortunately, whites of Northern/Western European stock will not see, let alone learn the lessons of their own demise along with their once glorious civilization while it’s happening to them and will basically become absorbed by other races which could prove to be a blessing-in-disguise since the branch of the white genepool that may just about survive and start to proliferate once again, will be that of the Baltic peoples who are not nearly as inclined towards the suicidal mindset of altruism as their Northern/Western European cousins were.

109 — ghw wrote at 11:41 PM on January 7:

A. Swain is very perceptive in noting above that multi-culturalism is really just multi-racialism in disguise. It’s the sugar coating on the pill that makes it go down a little easier.

In the same way, “integration” is really gradual “miscegenation” in disguise — which Southerners always knew in their hearts anyway, despite all the denials and assurances given them to the contrary. Northerners (including Canadians) and Europeans were more gullible. But Southerners recognized the same pill, even under the sugar coating.

110 — Anonymous wrote at 6:57 AM on January 8:

A. Swain,
It is very significant that you state that the Baltic peoples might be the ‘great survivors’ of the impending turmoil.
On linguistic grounds at least, it seems that the tiny Baltic nations are the purest remnants of the once mighty Indo-European people who spread their language and culture from India to Spain many centuries before Christ.

111 — Anonymous wrote at 9:17 AM on January 8:

Great, the consensus is that America was murdered in 1965, and they know who did it. Now all they are figuring out is where the corpses possessions will go. America was killed but they didn,t bother to bury the corpse. That must be why everything stinks so bad and people say stuff like when is it going to get back to normal? :(

112 — Rick wrote at 6:15 PM on January 8:

“the hemorrhaging of America’s white population will escalate outwards and into regions such as Northern/Western Europe, Russia and her outlying territories, Northern/Western Canada, to a lesser extent, a few South American countries like Chile maybe and, of course, Australia and Tasmania etc, in search of ethnic survival and economic stability.

In that sense, America will have indeed collapsed and will have also ceased to exist.”

I never believed that bit about America balkanizing, at least not into a White controlled area. There’s an increasing number of expats leaving the US every year. Great Britain got 50,000 Americans in 2007. Consider the fact that only about 100,000 people immigrate from Europe to the US every year. Among that 100,000, a significant number of them are nonwhite immigrants that lived in Europe and moved here. I really can’t say for sure, but by my figures, the number of Whites leaving the US is far greater than the number coming here by at least 3-1.

113 — n9wff wrote at 9:32 PM on January 16:

I find many to research a small object from his writing to be futile when they mock the study without studying the current situation of the US. We are in dire straits and, when either of two things happen, the US will collapse considering the moral status of this nation. If the monetary situation collapses, the governement will be unable to help, since it is in so much debt it won’t see the light of day again. If the governemnt continues its use of using borrowed taxpayer money to take control, it will need to double or triple the current tax rates just to meet that demand. The government will be in control of everything and most will be dependent of it.
This is called capitalism and socialism. We will be a dictatorship with no hope of returning to what our forefathers built for us.
You better get on our knees and pray hard. This is like no other recession the US has ever had and we may soon be ripe to other nations to pick us apart. All because of greed in business. Government should have NEVER put their paws in the banks and let the collapse. The banks who were not as gullible as the big ones would have grown and persevered.

I guess the end times are like the mirror on my car…they are closer then they appear.


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