Test Run For 2010 Census is Scaled Back, Worrying Experts
| AR Articles on the Demographic Transformation |
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The Census Bureau has scaled back its dress rehearsal for the once-a-decade national head count, raising fears that thousands of soldiers, immigrants and other hard-to-reach people will go uncounted when the population survey is conducted in 2010.
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The dry run is now under way in two states, with more than a half-million households receiving questionnaires from the Census Bureau. But the agency dropped such routine follow-up practices as sending census takers door-to-door to check whether homes on the bureau’s mailing list are vacant or occupied, and dispatching workers to figure out the best way to reach soldiers on military bases.
Because the dry run helps shape the way the national head count is ultimately carried out, some politicians and demographers worry that the census will miss members of the military, inmates, homeless people, college students, migrant workers and immigrants, both legal and illegal.
Census Bureau spokesman Stephen Buckner said he is confident the 2010 count will be accurate. He said that bureau officials haven’t eliminated any crucial portions of the simulation and that the census itself will feature the usual in-person interviews.
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Unlike in past years, workers won’t be sent out to double-check whether homes are occupied, and won’t be knocking on doors to encourage residents to send in their completed questionnaires. Nor will the government test out the best time and manner to deliver thousands of forms to people living in group quarters, such as college dorms, prisons or military bases.
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“The cutbacks in the dress rehearsal will no doubt affect the accuracy of the 2010 Census,” said Rep. Carolyn Maloney, D-N.Y. “The only question is how bad will it be and is there a chance to recover before 2010?”
The two areas hosting this year’s rehearsal were selected because they contain a wide variety of people living in a multitude of circumstances. The Fayetteville area includes the Army’s Fort Bragg. The Stockton, Calif., area some 60 miles east of San Francisco, residents speak dozens of languages at home. Stockton also has the highest foreclosure rate in the nation.
Prewitt—who serves as a government adviser on the census—said the data from practice runs is usually used to develop assumptions about housing vacancy rates and other conditions in the rest of the country. Without door-to-door visits, those extrapolations will be off, he said.
Also, without face-to-face contact, the bureau could have trouble understanding if its techniques are encouraging participation among immigrants, said William Frey, a demographer at the University of Michigan and the Brookings Institution.
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Buckner emphasized that the bureau has other reliable ways to verify vacancy rates, and said concern about uncounted immigrants is unfounded. The agency is working with community organizations and using the first-ever Spanish-English form, with one side in English, the other in Spanish, he said. (Census forms have long been available entirely in Spanish.)
(Posted on April 24, 2008)
Comments
The village in which I reside held a special census this past November and December. Our population is 24,000 largely White and middle class people but the thing was an absolute b**** to do.
As an enumerator (the government likes those big names), I went door-to-door four evenings a week and all day on Saturday and Sunday. Folks bristled when I had to ask them the ages and names of their children and also whether they had a mortgage.
When they really got on edge, though, was when I asked them, “What race would you ASSIGN to you and the people in this dwelling?”.
Half the respondents gave me an answer such as, “What do you WANT me to be?” and if not that, “What do I look like?”.
The few Mexican-Americans I visited had a curious look when I asked them the question, especially if they spoke excellent English, had lived here all their lives or had a spouse (and therefore children) who was anything but Mexican.
When Uncle Sam launches its decennial invasion for 2010, I would put very little credence in the figures they derive from the census.
If it was this screwy to take a dinky count in my Chicago suburb, can you imagine what a circus it’ll be for 300,000,000 people across nearly 4,000,000 square miles?
And this is the same government Obama and Clinton want to manage your health care, give everyone educational benefits, and (ha-ha) control our national borders.
Posted by Annoyed In Illinois at 9:18 PM on April 24
They must be out of their minds if they expect accuracy when the method sampling requires the form to be mailed back.
Posted by Oberweis at 9:21 PM on April 24
I’m glad this subject came up. I think it’s going to be a real eye-opener for people in 2010 when it turns out we have 20 or 25 million illegal aliens in the US. The number won’t be accurate, of course, because I’ll bet a year’s salary the true figure will be 30 million illegals by 2010, but 20 million should be enough to make people take notice.
On a related topic, the invasion in my small town continues unabated. I was shocked at the number of Mexicans in the grocery store today, and this is in a small town in Washington near the Canadian border. Oh, and I should mention that 30 percent of the defendants on the adult felony criminal calendar this afternoon were illegals. We are under invasion, and this country is going to collapse.
Posted by at 1:52 AM on April 25
“The cutbacks in the dress rehearsal will no doubt affect the accuracy of the 2010 Census,” said Rep. Carolyn Maloney, D-N.Y. “The only question is how bad will it be and is there a chance to recover before 2010?”
I’m guessing the real reason here is a desire to obfuscate (one way or another) the actual demographic shift that has taken place since 2000.
Could it be that there afraid to announce that non-hispanic Whites will be less than 50% of the pop. in 2010 (40 years ahead of the past prediction)?
Posted by Henry R. at 4:13 AM on April 25
I believe the Government does not WANT an accurate count.
I think if Americans actually KNEW how many illegal immigrants were residing within our boarders there would be anger.
Posted by Jodie at 2:23 PM on April 25
The census wouldn’t be that hard if they just stuck to the only information they are entitled to by law: the street address and the number of bodies residing at that address, nothing more. They are not entitled to know the race, age, sex, etc. Not even your name. Back in 2000 I informed the census taker of this fact, supplied her with the address and number of occupants, told her “good day”, and shut the door. She knew I was right (and none too happy about the fact that I knew the rules) and didn’t dare bang on my door a second time.
Posted by at 3:52 PM on May 2