As Mitt Romney seems to be pulling into the lead in the presidential race, several articles have appeared wondering whether blacks will riot if their man losses. The Drudge Report highlighted many of these articles last week.
Judging from Twitter comments, a number of blacks are indeed promising violence if Mr. Romney wins. One of the more printable tweets is from “Don Kushnelius” who chirps, “If Mitt Romney wins the election I think it’s our duties as Black folks to riot and f*** s*** up.”
There was some talk of this in 2008 but by election day nobody thought Mr. McCain would win so the issue didn’t get much attention. Still, the sight of white suburbanites gathering side-by-side with blacks in Chicago’s Grant Park on election night in 2008 did make me wonder what would have happened to these SWPL (Stuff White People Like) types—some with small children—if Mr. Obama had lost.
Perhaps we will find out in a few weeks.
The nice white liberals who support Mr. Obama—and there are many in my profession and in my neighborhood—truly believe they are banding together with their black fellows to promote a progressive agenda of gay rights, more social services, a woman’s right to choose, stopping global warming, and the like.
But most blacks have no interest in those issues and see the election simply as a bid for racial power and a chance to support one of their own. It would be the ultimate “diss” if Mr. Obama falls and America’s only black president joins such losers as Jimmy Carter and George W. Bush on the list of failed presidents.
They could very well attack the first white people they see, even if those whites sport oversized “Obama 2012” buttons.
But I have my doubts that Mr. Romney can win.
A Republican victory is starting to seem likely if you listen to Rush Limbaugh, watch FOX News, or read the Drudge Report. These outlets were particularly pleased to trumpet recent Gallup polls showing Mr. Romney up by 6-7 points.
Real Clear Politics still has Mr. Obama up in the electoral college race, however, and a slew of new polls show him with slight leads in places such as Florida, Wisconsin, and Ohio. Mr. Romney cannot win without these states.
VDARE.com is running daily updates on the white vote, and the results show why the GOP is not winning these states. They simply do not have the 60-61 percent of whites they will need to win. Mr. Romney seems to be stalled at between 54 and 57 percent. This will certainly go up a bit as many undecided whites break Romney’s way, but will it be enough to crack the 60+ percent he needs?
If not, he will have only himself to blame. From his pandering to Hispanics on immigration during the second debate to his refusal even to mention affirmative action, Romney has made no effort to reach whites. This is all the more unforgivable given that affirmative action is now being argued before the Supreme Court.
The Constitution Party (CP), a conservative third party, is on the ballot in key swing states such as Virginia, Colorado, Ohio, Michigan, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. If Mr. Romney doesn’t want to campaign for conservative votes then Virgil Goode, the CP presidential candidate, will be happy to take them.
So if blacks will riot if Obama losses, what will whites do if he wins? Of course, there are no Twitter threats of riots by whites. The worst reporters could find were vows by whites to leave the country.
A loss for the GOP will be a wake-up call for conservatives and whites in general. Though the Republicans don’t do much for whites, they are seen as the only real political option for them. But demographics are about to wipe them out at the national level as Peter Brimelow and Ed Rubenstein pointed out over 15 years ago in the pages of National Review.
In 2016, the GOP presidential candidate will probably need 64 percent of the white vote (more if there is an amnesty) barely to squeak by. To put that in perspective, that is the percentage of the white vote Ronald Reagan won when he ran for reelection. It was the high-water mark for the nationwide white vote, and was enough for a 49-state landslide—in 1984.
A Romney loss will no doubt renew the call for the Republicans to become “more inclusive” and support for an amnesty will be high on the list of overpaid GOP strategists. But given the demographics, it may not matter who wins yet another Republican civil war between RINOs and conservatives.
Certain Republicans would no doubt be glad to have issues like immigration and quotas permanently removed from the conversation. But if the Democrats have no challengers at the national level—and the Senate and House also start to feel the demographic effects—won’t a one-party U.S. start to be run a lot like California?
What will this mean for issues that the GOP does still care about, such as taxes, spending, trade, and foreign policy?
Whites will not riot if Mr. Romney losses, but they should at least start thinking about their future in a nation where the dominant party despises them and the other party ignores them.